Markets Weekly August 29, 2026

8月29日，《市场周刊》（Markets Weekly）的主讲人开场指出，当周主要股指大体处于区间震荡，而英伟达（NVIDIA）是一个突出的例外。核心议题是近期举行的杰克逊霍尔货币政策会议，特别是美联储主席沃什（Warsh）的讲话。主讲人将此次讲话形容为“极其、极其鹰派”（extremely, extremely hawkish），并断言其“几乎承诺了九月加息”（all but promises a September hike），这与许多社交媒体上将其描述为“毫无意义”（nothing burger）的看法形成对比。 为了追溯背景，主讲人回顾了沃什在上次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）记者会上的表现，当时他采取了鹰派立场，但未能采取行动或充分解释其不作为。值得注意的是，沃什建议将美联储的通胀目标从PCE（个人消费支出）改变，尽管美联储多年来都未能达到2%的PCE目标，这被视为损害了信心，并导致他“颜面尽失”（beclowned）。市场对此反应担忧，长期债券收益率飙升约10个基点就是明证。主讲人认为沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话中直接回应了过去的这些批评。 市场对杰克逊霍尔讲话的反应被主讲人视为决定性指标，强烈支持了鹰派解读。对美联储政策高度敏感的两年期债券收益率显著飙升11个基点。此外，SOFR期货和联邦基金期货现在暗示未来一年大约会加息两次，这让主讲人得出结论，这次讲话是“绝对鹰派”（hawkish full stop）。 主讲人随后详细阐述了促成这种鹰派看法的要素。首先，沃什明确承诺“将2%的PCE作为固定目标”（2% PCE as a fixed target），打消了市场对美联储改变目标的担忧。其次，沃什承认“货币政策并非自动执行”（monetary policy is not self-executing），这意味着需要采取积极措施，例如加息，来抑制通胀，这直接回应了过去对其不作为的批评。第三，沃什明确指出“金融条件并非真正紧缩”（financial conditions aren't really restrictive），并引用了信用利差和贷款增长作为证据。根据主讲人的说法，这一评估就像一个“巨大的告示牌”（huge billboard），表明美联储认为其尚未采取足够行动。 考虑到美联储的双重使命，沃什指出，“充分就业”使命目前已经实现，失业率为4.1%。相比之下，“通胀使命”仍未实现。这种不平衡，加上非紧缩的金融条件，强烈暗示美联储“必须加息”（has to hike）。沃什还引入了一个概念：通胀回归目标**速度**的重要性，而不仅仅是最终达到目标。他强调通胀长期高于目标，并且尽管有所进展，但仍“微不足道”（modest），这表明了一种新的“紧迫感”（sense of urgency）。沃什还积极反驳了稳定的通胀预期消除了加息必要性的论点，警告说预期“可能变化非常快”（can change very quickly），并且“不足以令人安心”（not a reason for comfort）。 尽管有这些强烈的信号，市场目前仅消化了九月加息“五五开”（50-50）的可能性。主讲人将这种不确定性归因于对沃什决心的持续怀疑，他援引了沃什过去的不作为以及政治影响的可能性（例如，被视为“特朗普的宠物”）。然而，主讲人认为，沃什在这次讲话中有意努力解决过去的不足，再加上政治考量（例如贝松（Besson）对长期债券的担忧以及稳定长期债券的愿望），使得九月加息的可能性极高。主讲人提出，在九月采取行动在策略上是明智的，可以避免临近11月大选，而且在如此明确的沟通后未能兑现，将使沃什看起来像个“彻头彻尾的小丑”（huge, huge clown）。就个人而言，主讲人将九月加息的几率定为“90%”。 虽然短期利率交易员似乎已经领会了鹰派信息，但主讲人指出，“其他资产类别的参与者可能并未完全领会”（other asset classes maybe don't fully grasp this），他举例说明黄金下跌而股市相对稳定。这表明随着全部影响变得清晰，可能会有“更多重新定价”（more repricing），并可能进一步扰乱“风险资产”（risk assets）市场。 然而，一个重要的制衡因素是总统（暗示的）有能力用“强大的核武器”（powerful nuke）影响市场，例如宣布“与伊朗达成和平协议”（peace agreement with Iran），这可能会降低油价和利率，从而提振股市。由于中期选举民调对总统不利，可能导致在众议院失利，并在参议院形成“五五开”（50-50 toss-up）的局面，以及与加拿大关系紧张影响关键摇摆州，存在在中期选举前“与加拿大、与伊朗达成政治解决方案”（political resolution with Canada, with Iran before the midterms）的压力。这样的事件将是“利好风险资产”（risk positive）的。 主讲人总结道，市场目前正处于一个引人入胜的“局面”（setup），它平衡了更紧缩货币政策（尚未完全消化）的前景与总统可能使用“核武器”推高市场的潜力。展望未来，劳动节前的一周过后，预计市场将出现“更多波动”（more volatility in the markets）。

On August 29th, the speaker of "Markets Weekly" opened by noting a largely range-bound week for major equity indexes, with NVIDIA being a standout exception. The central topic was the recent Jackson Hole monetary policy conference, specifically Fed Chair Warsh's speech. The speaker characterized this speech as "extremely, extremely hawkish," asserting that it "all but promises a September hike," a view that contrasts with many social media accounts describing it as a "nothing burger." To contextualize, the speaker recounted Warsh's prior performance at the last FOMC presser, where he adopted a hawkish tone but failed to act or adequately explain his inaction. Notably, Warsh's suggestion of changing the Fed's inflation target from PCE, despite not having met the 2% PCE goal for several years, was seen as undermining confidence and led to him being "beclowned." The market reacted with concern, as evidenced by the long bond surging about 10 basis points. The speaker believes Warsh directly addressed this past criticism in his Jackson Hole address. The market's reaction to the Jackson Hole speech, considered the definitive indicator by the speaker, strongly supported a hawkish interpretation. The two-year bond, highly sensitive to Fed policy, saw a significant 11-basis-point surge. Moreover, SOFR futures and Fed fund futures are now implying approximately two rate hikes in the coming year, leading the speaker to conclude the speech was "hawkish full stop." The speaker then detailed the elements contributing to this hawkish perception. Firstly, Warsh definitively committed to a "2% PCE as a fixed target," dispelling fears of the Fed altering its goals. Secondly, Warsh acknowledged that "monetary policy is not self-executing," implying that active measures, such as rate hikes, are necessary to combat inflation, directly addressing past criticisms of inaction. Thirdly, Warsh explicitly stated that "financial conditions aren't really restrictive," citing credit spreads and loan growth. This assessment, according to the speaker, serves as a "huge billboard" indicating the Fed believes it has not yet done enough. Given the Fed's dual mandate, Warsh noted that the "full employment" mandate is currently met, with an unemployment rate at 4.1%. In contrast, the "inflation mandate" remains unmet. This imbalance, combined with non-restrictive financial conditions, strongly suggests the Fed "has to hike." Warsh also introduced the concept that the *speed* at which inflation returns to target matters, not just reaching it eventually. He highlighted that inflation has been above target for too long and that progress, while present, has been "modest," signaling a renewed "sense of urgency." Warsh also proactively rebutted the argument that stable inflation expectations negate the need for hikes, warning that expectations "can change very quickly" and are "not a reason for comfort." Despite these strong signals, the market currently prices only a "50-50" chance of a September hike. The speaker attributes this uncertainty to lingering doubts about Warsh's resolve, citing his past inaction and the possibility of political influence (e.g., being perceived as "Trump's pet"). However, the speaker believes Warsh's deliberate effort to address past shortcomings in this speech, coupled with political considerations (such as Besson's concern over the long bond and the desire to stabilize it), make a September hike highly probable. The speaker suggests that acting in September is strategically sound, avoiding proximity to the November elections, and that failure to follow through after such clear communication would make Warsh appear a "huge, huge clown." Personally, the speaker places the odds of a September hike at "90%." While short-term interest rate traders appear to have grasped the hawkish message, the speaker notes that participants in "other asset classes maybe don't fully grasp this," pointing to gold's decline versus the relative stability in equities. This suggests a potential for "more repricing" and further market upset for "risk assets" as the full implications become clear. However, a significant counterbalancing factor is the President's (implied) ability to influence markets with a "powerful nuke," such as declaring a "peace agreement with Iran," which could lower oil prices and rates, thereby boosting the stock market. With midterm polls unfavorable to the president, potentially leading to losses in both the House and a "50-50 toss-up" in the Senate, and increased tensions with Canada impacting key battleground states, there's pressure for "political resolution with Canada, with Iran before the midterms." Such an event would be "risk positive." The speaker concludes that the market is currently in a fascinating "setup," balancing the prospects of more restrictive monetary policy (not fully priced in) against the potential for a presidential "nuke" that could send markets higher. Looking ahead, the upcoming week before Labor Day is expected to be followed by "more volatility in the markets."