Markets Weekly August 22, 2026
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以下是内容的中文翻译：
8月22日，《市场周刊》强调，美国财政部意外干预了债券市场，原因是财政部长贝桑特正在应对无休止上涨的长期债券收益率，目前已达5.3%。这一飙升水平是2008年金融危机前所未见的，被财政部认为“历史性高位”且“不可接受”。
导致这些收益率上升的因素有：受伊朗战争和能源价格飙升推动的全球趋势；对美联储实现通胀目标的承诺的担忧（尤其是在“凯文”最近发表模棱两可的声明之后）；以及市场动态，例如超大规模企业（hyperscalers）挤出美债，或者强劲的股市使得5%的债券收益率显得缺乏吸引力。
作为回应，财政部上周做出了一项“非同寻常”且计划外的宣布，将扩大其长期债券回购计划的规模。该计划最初由上届政府推出，主要有两个目的：现金管理（利用不规律税收流入的闲置现金）；更重要的是，流动性管理。国债市场复杂，每期发行都有唯一的识别码（QSIP）。新发行的“当期”（on-the-run）国债流动性很强，而较旧的“非当期”（off-the-run）债券则逐渐变得缺乏流动性。回购计划旨在通过允许财政部充当“最后的做市商”，回购缺乏流动性的非当期证券，从而鼓励一级交易商对这些证券进行做市，以改善这一状况。上届政府强调，这是久期中性的，通过发行更多相同久期的债券来为回购提供资金。
然而，贝桑特部长明确将当前行动称为“财政部扭曲操作”（Treasury Twist），预示着一个重大转变。与原计划不同，贝桑特打算发行短期票据来回购长期债券，从而缩短未偿国债的整体久期。这类似于美联储2012年的“扭曲操作”（Operation Twist），旨在对长期利率施加下行压力。尽管最初市场反应是长期债券收益率下降了约9个基点，但很快就逆转了，部分原因是油价上涨。然而，演讲者认为，财政部拥有充足的“火力”（firepower）使这一策略奏效。
除了简单地扩大当前回购计划的规模，财政部还拥有广泛的工具箱，可以进行进一步干预：
1. **削减发行规模：** 财政部可以直接减少新发行长期债券的供应，日本最近就对其40年期债券采取了这一策略，并对收益率产生了显著（尽管是暂时的）影响。
2. **鼓励银行购买：** 美国政府可以利用其监管权力，向商业银行施压（例如在合并审批期间或通过调整资本要求），要求它们增加国债持有量，将其塑造成一种“爱国”义务。
3. **利用政府支持企业（GSEs）：** 房利美和房地美等实体可以被指示购买国债，类似于它们过去被命令购买抵押贷款债券以降低利率的方式。
4. **美联储介入（核选项）：** 终极工具是“收益率曲线控制”（YCC），即美联储积极地设定长期收益率上限。美国在20世纪40年代曾这样做，日本近期也采取了此举。美联储的第三项使命——“适度长期利率”——可以为此类极端措施提供政治理由，尽管它可能会对货币产生影响。
总之，演讲者断言，财政部认为5.3%的长期债券收益率是不可接受的水平，他们将全力致力于将其降低。凭借其全面的工具箱，他们有信心管理局势，尽管伊朗战争的解决将是实现收益率持续下降的“最佳途径”。市场将在未来几周考验财政部长的决心。
On August 22nd, Markets Weekly highlighted the U.S. Treasury's unexpected intervention in bond markets, as Secretary Besant addresses relentlessly rising long-bond yields, currently at 5.3%. This surge, reaching levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis, is deemed "historically high" and unacceptable by the Treasury.
Several factors contribute to these rising yields: a global movement driven by the Iran war and escalating energy prices, concerns about the Federal Reserve's commitment to its inflation targets (especially following recent ambiguous statements from "Kevin"), and market dynamics like hyperscalers crowding out Treasuries or a strong equity market making 5% bond yields appear unattractive.
In response, the Treasury last week made an "extraordinary" and unscheduled announcement to upsize its buyback program in the long-end sector. This program, initially introduced by the previous administration, had two primary aims: cash management (deploying excess cash from lumpy tax inflows) and, more importantly, liquidity management. The Treasury market is complex, with each issuance having a unique identifier (QSIP). Newly issued "on-the-run" Treasuries are very liquid, while older "off-the-run" issues become progressively illiquid. The buyback program aimed to improve this by allowing the Treasury to act as a "dealer of last resort," buying back illiquid off-the-run securities, thus encouraging primary dealers to make markets in them. The prior administration emphasized that this was duration-neutral, financing buybacks by issuing more of the same duration.
However, Secretary Besant has explicitly called the current action a "Treasury Twist," signaling a significant shift. Unlike the original program, Besant intends to issue short-term bills to buy back long-term bonds, thereby shortening the overall duration of outstanding Treasury debt. This is analogous to the Fed's "Operation Twist" in 2012, which aimed to put downward pressure on long-dated rates. While the initial market reaction saw long bond yields drop by about nine basis points, this was quickly reversed, partly due to rising oil prices. The speaker believes, however, that the Treasury possesses ample "firepower" to make this strategy effective.
Beyond simply upscaling the current buyback program, the Treasury has a broad toolkit for further intervention:
1. **Cutting Issuance Sizes:** The Treasury could directly reduce the supply of new long-end bonds, a strategy recently employed by Japan for its 40-year bonds, which led to a notable (though temporary) impact on yields.
2. **Encouraging Banks to Buy:** Leveraging its regulatory power, the U.S. government could pressure commercial banks (e.g., during merger approvals or by adjusting capital requirements) to increase their Treasury holdings, framing it as a "patriotic" duty.
3. **Utilizing Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs):** Entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be directed to purchase Treasury bonds, similar to how they were commanded to buy mortgage bonds in the past to lower interest rates.
4. **Fed Involvement (The Nuclear Option):** The ultimate tool is "yield curve control" (YCC), where the Federal Reserve actively caps long-term yields. This was done in the U.S. in the 1940s and more recently by Japan. The Fed's third mandate—"moderate long-term interest rates"—could provide the political justification for such an extreme measure, though it would likely have implications for the currency.
In conclusion, the speaker asserts that 5.3% is an unacceptable level for long-bond yields in the eyes of the Treasury, and they are fully committed to bringing them down. With a comprehensive toolkit at their disposal, they are confident in their ability to manage the situation, though a resolution to the Iran war would be the "best thing" for a sustained reduction in yields. The market is set to test the Treasury Secretary's resolve in the coming weeks.
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:45 - Treasury Twist
10:35 - Big Tool Kit
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是8月22日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。大家好。上个星期本来应该是一个非常平静的夏天周，但实际上却非常激动人心。看起来，贝桑特部长终于厌倦了每天看到长期债券收益率上涨，他决定采取行动应对。因此，今天我们来聊聊贝桑特正在进行的国债回购计划，这个计划是为了通过国债操作来降低长期债券的收益率。另外，我们也会讨论财政部接下来可能采取的一些措施，因为目前看来，他所做的可能还不够，正如贝桑特部长所说，财政部实际上确实有很多工具可以使用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is August 22nd, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, guys. So last week was supposed to be a very quiet summer week, but it was actually super exciting. It seems like Secretary Besant finally got tired of watching long bond yield rise every single day, and he's calling time and actually doing something about it. So today, let's talk about the Treasury buyback program that Besant is doing to try to conduct a Treasury twist to lower long-deeded yields, and let's talk about some next steps the Treasury could do to further lower yields, because it looks like what he's doing so far may not be enough, and the Treasury actually really does have a large toolkit, as Secretary Besant suggests.
好的，先从回购谈起，或者按照贝桑特的说法是“国债扭曲政策”。为了更好地理解，请看看这张美国30年期国债收益率的图表。你会发现收益率在不断上涨。实际上，上周我们刚做了一期节目专门讨论这个问题，你可以去看看。简单来说，长债收益率持续上涨有多种原因。首当其冲的原因是，这是一场由伊朗战争推动的全球性趋势，因为战争导致能源价格上涨。因此，全世界的长债收益率都在上涨，主要原因就是能源价格的上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the buybacks, or the Treasury twist, as Besant notes. Now, for context, look at this chart of the U.S. 30-year bond yield. You can see that it's been rising relentlessly, and actually, we just did an episode on this last week that you can check out. In short, there's a number of stories why the long bond yield keeps rising. First and foremost, of course, is that this is a global movement driven by the war in Iran driving up energy prices. So everywhere in the world, the long bond yields are rising, mostly because energy prices are rising.
你也对美联储实现其通胀目标的决心感到担忧。凯文在他最后一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上的表现令人担忧，因为他暗示，可能他不会以个人消费支出（PCE）为目标，可能会以其他不愿透露的指标为目标。这自然动摇了债券市场对美联储关注通胀的信心。此外，还有一些市场相关的故事，例如说大规模云计算服务商发了很多债，挤出了国债的空间，或者说股市表现太好了，以至于5%的长期债券收益率依然不够吸引人。不管怎样，长期债券的收益率一直在上涨，目前已达到5.3%，这在历史上是一个很高的水平，是自2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。虽然在更早，比如上世纪70年代和80年代，收益率也很高，但也要记得那时的通胀率大约有10%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You also have concerns about the Fed's commitment to its inflation target. Kevin's last performance at his FOMC meeting was very concerning because he suggested that, you know, maybe he's not going to target PCE. Maybe he's going to target something else that he doesn't want to tell you about. And that, of course, shakes the bond market's confidence in the Fed as someone who cares about inflation. You also have a few more market-based stories where you can say that, for example, the hyperscalers are issuing a lot of debt, crowding out treasuries, or you can say that the equity market is doing so well that 5% long bond yields are just not enough. In any case, the long bond yield keeps going up and up and up, and at 5.3%, it is historically high. It's as high as it's been since before the 2008 financial crisis. Now it's been higher in the past, say the 1970s and 80s, but also remember that back then inflation, you know, was like 10%.
长期债券收益率处于历史高位，政府有很多措施可以用来阻止这种情况。但是，除非他们真正表明对此感到关切，否则你并不知道他们是否会采取行动。上周，有一个强烈的信号显示，美国财政部对长期债券收益率的上涨感到不满。因此，上周中，财政部宣布将扩大其在长期债券领域的回购计划。首先，这是一项非常不同寻常的举措。通常情况下，财政部只在季度再融资公告中对回购计划进行调整，而这次调整距离上次季度公告仅有几周时间。因此这一突然且意料之外的变化显然是对市场情况变化的回应。财政部对目前看到的情况不满意，5.3%的长期收益率对他们来说太高了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the long bond yield is historically high, and there's a lot of things the government can do to stop this. But you don't know whether or not they're going to do this until they actually show that they are concerned. And last week, there was a very strong indication that the Treasury had had enough of the long bond yield rising. So last week, in the middle of the week, there was an announcement that the U.S. Treasury would upsize its buyback program in the long-end sector. Now this, first off, is an extraordinary thing to do. Usually when the Treasury makes adjustments to its buyback program, it does it at its quarterly refunding announcements, which was just a few weeks ago. So this, out of the blue, unanticipated, is clearly a response to changing market conditions. The Treasury does not like what it sees. 5.3% on the long-end is too much for them.
那么到底什么是回购计划呢？首先，回购计划是由上一届政府引入的，它实际上有两个目的。第一个目的是现金管理，第二个目的是流动性管理。现金管理比较容易理解，从国库的角度来看，你会发现现金流入非常不均匀。例如，在4月纳税季会有大量资金流入，接着还有公司季度税、预估税，以及可能的关税等收入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what exactly is the buyback program? Well, first off, the buyback program is something that was introduced by the last administration and it really has two aims. The first aim is cash management and the second aim is liquidity management. So cash management is a more benign and understandable thing. So cash management, if you're thinking about things from the Treasury's perspective, you'll notice that your cash inflows are very lumpy. So you get a ton of money coming in in April when everyone pays taxes, and then you get some money coming in on quarterly corporate taxes, estimated taxes, and, you know, maybe tariffs and stuff like that.
由于你的现金流入是不规则的，而现金支出没有那么不规则，所以有时候你可能会有比你想要的更多的现金。在这种情况下，如果你可以回购股票，也许你就可以利用这些多余的现金来偿还国债，为纳税人节省一些钱。因此，在四月份，当你从税收收入中获得大量现金流入时，你可能会有比你需要更多的钱，你可以利用这些资金用于回购和债券。所以，我认为这种方式来进行股票回购是完全合理的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But because your cash inflow is lumpy and your cash spending is not as lumpy, sometimes you will end up with much more cash than you want. And so if you can have buybacks back then, maybe you could just, you know, deploy some of that excess cash by retiring Treasury debt, saving the taxpayers some money. So in April, when you have huge inflows from tax receipts, maybe you have more money than you need, you can use that and buybacks and bills. So that was, I think, a totally reasonable way to do buybacks.
回购操作的另一个目标是帮助改善国债市场的流动性，我认为这是其中更为重要的一部分。国债市场与股票市场有所不同。股票市场上，如果你想买苹果公司的股票，只需找到苹果的股票代码，通通过你的经纪账户买入就可以，苹果股票是在交易所挂牌交易的，这一切都很顺利。而国债市场则要复杂得多，因为没有一个统一的代码。每一期国债发行都有一个独特的QSIP代码。比如，如果财政部拍卖了一份10年期的国债，该10年期国债就会有一个特定的QSIP代码。几个月后，当财政部再次拍卖新一期的10年期国债时，新的这份国债将会有另一个QSIP代码。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Another goal of the buyback operation is to help with Treasury market liquidity, which I think is the much more important part of it. So the Treasury market, it's not like the stock market, where if you want to buy Apple stock, there's this Apple ticker. You find it on your brokerage screen, and you buy it, and Apple was traded on exchange, and everything goes well. So the Treasury market is, I guess you can say, a lot messier in the sense that there's just not one ticker. Every Treasury issuance has a unique QSIP ID. So, for example, if the Treasury auctioned off a 10-year Treasury security, that 10-year would have a QSIP. And a few months later, when an auction's a new vintage of 10-year, then that new vintage is going to have another QSIP.
你可以把国债市场想象成由许多独立的证券识别号码（QSIP）组成的集合，每个QSIP都有不同的票息和流动性特征。如果你感兴趣的话，我在我的书《中央银行101》中谈到过这个话题。我的网站centralbanking101.com上还有关于国债市场的在线课程。在国债市场中，有一个特性是新拍卖的国债，即所谓的“在发行”国债，非常具有流动性。但较早发行的国债，过去发行的那些，其流动性较差，我们称之为“非发行”国债。随着国债时间的推移变得越来越“非发行”，比如几年前发行的国债，它们的流动性会变得相当低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you can think of the Treasury market as a collection of many QSIPs, and each QSIP will have different coupons and different liquidity profiles. If you're interested, I actually have talked about this in my book, Central Banking 101. I also have an online course on the Treasury market in my online courses on centralbanking101.com. So one of the properties of the Treasury market is that the newly auctioned Treasuries, we call them on-the-runs, are liquid, very liquid. But the older issues, formerly issued Treasuries issues in the past are less liquid, and we call them off-the-run Treasuries. And as the Treasury becomes progressively off-the-run, so let's say something that was issued a few years ago, it becomes pretty illiquid.
这就成为市场运作中的一个问题。为了解决这个问题，财政部可以作为最后的交易商，为一级交易商提供一种方式来处理他们那些流动性较差的证券。这样的话，一级交易商会更加愿意在过时的国债市场进行交易，因为他们知道最终可以将这些证券卖给美国政府，不会被迫持有这类证券。财政部可以通过多种方式来评估国债市场的流动性。其中一些常用的方法是观察那些流动性较差的国债相对于一个数学模型的交易情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that becomes a problem for market functioning. So one of the ways that you could improve this is if the Treasury could act as a dealer of last resort and offer primary dealers a way to offload their less illiquid securities. So if that were the case, primary dealers would be more willing to make markets in off-the-run Treasuries, knowing that at the end of the day, they could always sell these securities to the U.S. government, so they wouldn't be stuck with them. So the way that the Treasury would do this is that, for example, so how do you measure liquidity in the Treasury market? There's actually a lot of ways to do this. Some popular ways would be, for example, to look at how off-the-runs trade with respect to a mathematical model.
我们称之为样条曲线，例如，如果你的数学模型显示30年期国债应该以5%的利率交易，但有一个不常交易的国债以5.2%的利率交易。这可能是流动性溢价，表明国债市场存在一定的流动性问题。不过这种情况可以通过多种方式来衡量。根据国债的报道，在宣布回购计划后，国债市场的流动性有了显著改善。之前的政府十分强调，这个流动性管理项目和回购计划并不是为了改变国债市场的期限结构。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We call this to spline, for example, if your mathematical model tells you that a 30-year Treasury should be trading at 5%, but you have one off-the-run that's trading at 5.2%. Now that's probably an illiquidity premium, and that suggests some liquidity problems in the Treasury market. But there's many ways to measure this. And so according to this Treasury presentation, after the buyback program was announced, there were notable improvements in liquidity in the Treasury market. So one of the things that the prior administration was very, very strong to emphasize was that this liquidity management program, these buyback programs, are not meant to change the duration of the Treasury market.
他们进行这些回购计划的融资方式其实很简单，就是直接发行新的债券。比如，如果他们要回购30年期国债，融资方式就是再发行更多30年期国债。从某种意义上说，就是发行新债来回购旧债。他们强调这一点是为了向大家说明，这并不是一种花招，而是在以一种规律和可预测的方式进行。债券票面额的变化会在季度融资时通过宣布拍卖规模来进行调整。毕竟，我们是有信誉的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the way that they would finance these buyback programs was simply just to be issued on the runs. For example, if they were to buy back a 30-year Treasury, the way they would finance this was just to issue more 30-year Treasuries. So, in a sense, it's issuing on the runs to buy back off the runs. So they wanted to emphasize this because they wanted to tell everyone that, you know, this is not some kind of gimmick. We are going to issue in a regular and predictable way. Changes in coupon sizes will be done through changes at the quarterly funding where we will announce auction sizes. After all, we are respectable people.
当然，那些当时倾向于阴谋论的人，或者仅仅是更聪明的人，知道这件事情有着巨大的潜力。他们试图控制收益率曲线，我之前也写过这个话题。不过，现在我们有了不同的政府。于是，上周，贝松宣布了这个回购计划。问题在于，这个计划是不是只是为了改善30年期国债的流动性，按照计划初衷，用新发行的国债回购旧发行的国债？还是说，这其实是在改变国债的久期，以便压低收益率？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But, of course, all the, I guess, more conspiracy-oriented people or maybe just the straight-up more clever people at the time knew that this was something that had tremendous potential. They tried to control the yield curve, and I have written about this in the past. But anyway, now we have a different administration. So, last week, Besson announced this buyback program. And so the question was, is this just to improve liquidity in the 30-year, whereas you'll be issuing more on the runs to buy back off the runs as the program was originally intended? Or is this really changing the duration of the Treasury's outstanding as a way to suppress yields?
贝松在接受CNBC采访时对此非常坦率，他将此称为“国债扭转”。这意味着在债券市场中，他愿意进行我所谓的国债扭转。那么，我知道市场不知道的是什么？很显然，他打算通过发行短期国债来回购长期债券。这样会稍微缩短国债的整体期限。当然，他也可能大幅增加回购计划的规模，实际上这没有上限。如果他真的想，他可以全部回购。因此，他可能会一直这样做，直到他达到想要的结果为止。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And Besson was actually pretty candid about this in an interview he gave with CNBC where he called this a Treasury twist. That in terms of being willing to do what I would call a Treasury twist here in terms of the bond market, what do I know that the market doesn't know? So that very obviously means that he's going to be issuing bills to buy back bonds. And that's going to shorten the duration of the Treasury's outstanding just by a little bit. And, of course, he could totally upsize his buyback programs. And really, there's no limit to this. He could just really buy it all if he really wanted to. So he's going to probably keep doing this until he gets the outcome that he wants.
现在，对于那些过去关注这件事的人来说，"扭转操作"是美联储在2012年进行的一项操作，他们减少了持有的短期国债，并增加了持有的长期国债。这当然是一种给长期利率施加下行压力的方法。当时，美联储在这样做。而这一次，是财政部在进行类似的操作。在宣布这件事的当天，长期债券市场基本上出现了上涨，所以收益率下降了大约9个基点。但在接下来的两天里，这些收益基本上又回吐了。公平地说，那几天油价也在不断上涨，这推高了全球的收益率。因此，到目前为止，这项操作并不算成功。但实际上，我不会太担心，因为他们确实有能力让这项操作奏效。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, for those of you who actually are following this in the past, Operation Twist is something the Fed did in 2012, where they reduced their holdings of short-dated Treasuries and to increase their holdings of longer-dated Treasuries. It was a way, of course, to put downward pressure on longer-dated interest. That time, the Fed was doing it. This time, the Treasury is doing it. So on the day that this was announced, we have the long bond basically rally. So yields go down by about nine basis points. In the next two days, they basically gave it all back up. To be fair, we also had a constant increase in oil prices those days. And that kind of drove up yields globally. So at the end of the day, this so far has not been successful. But really, I wouldn't sweat it because they really do have the firepower to make this work.
那么，我们想要讨论的第二个问题是，如果财政部的措施未能达到预期效果，他们还能做些什么。首先，如之前所提到的，如果至少 40 亿美元（或其他数额）的措施不足以降低长期债券的收益率，他们可以大幅增加投入资金。这个观点基于这样一个理论：对长期债券来说，供需关系比预期的美联储政策路径更重要。当然，这一理论是相当普遍接受的。因此，仅仅通过减少长期债券的供应量，就可以对收益率产生影响。我们确实在公告当天看到了这种效果。但是，我们也必须面对油价不断上涨的挑战，这的确是个问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the second thing we want to talk about is what else the Treasury can do, supposing that this has not had the impact that they wanted. So first off, as we noted before, if $4 billion, at least $4 billion, or whatever number they're doing, is not enough to lower long bond yields. They can just upsize this enormously again. So this is relying on the belief, the theory that for the long bond, supply and demand matter more than the expected path of Fed policy, which, of course, I think that's pretty commonly accepted. So by simply reducing the supply of long bonds, you could actually have impacts on the yield. And we did see that on announcement day. But again, you're fighting against the relentless rise in oil prices. So that is a problem.
假设这还不够，国债采取的下一步措施当然是非常常见且直接的，那就是直接减少发行规模。在上次的国债再融资公告中，他们已经暗示了这一点。我们上周讨论过这个问题，你可以去看看那个视频。如果他们减少长期国债的发行规模，这将向市场发出一个明确的强烈信号，并且在机制上会减少供应，这将显著降低长期债券收益率。这一措施最近在日本得到了运用。具体来说，日本在处理其40年期债券收益率问题时，就一直在削减40年期债券拍卖的规模。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So assuming this is not enough, the next step the Treasuries could do is, of course, a very common and straightforward thing to do, and that is cut issuance sizes outright. Now, they already hinted about this at the last Treasury refunding announcement. We talked about this last week. You should check out that video. So if they were to cut long-end issuance sizes, that would also very clearly send a strong signal to the markets and mechanically have less supply, and that would have a notable downward shift in the long bond yield. Now, this is something most recently deployed in Japan. So in Japan, they had some problems with their 40-year bond yield, to be precise, and they have consistently been cutting sizes in their 40-year auctions.
你可以从他们的公开声明中看出这一点。这已经对那边的40年期债券收益率产生了非常显著的影响。你会看到，在声明发布时，40年期收益率出现了巨大下降。然而，你也要注意到这种改善持续了几周，但最终是暂时的。因此，这确实赢得了一些时间，也非常具有影响力。但除非伊朗战争有解决方案，否则我认为这将会相当困难。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you can see that in their public announcements. And it has had a very notable impact on 40-year bond yields over there. You can see that upon announcement, there was this huge, huge implosion in 40-year yields. However, though, you'll have to also note that the improvement was, you know, it lasted for some weeks, but ultimately, temporary. So this definitely buys time, definitely very impactful. But unless we have some resolution there on the Iran War, I think it's going to be quite difficult.
现在，除了这些只涉及国库的事情之外，他们还可以采取其他措施。有位土耳其的经济学教授发了一篇非常有趣的文章，内容指出在土耳其，当他们想要压低收益率时，他们强迫银行大量购买债券，这在一段时间内成功地压低了收益率。据说这种情况一直持续到选举结束，选举结束后，一切都恢复正常。因此，他们接下来可以做的是大力鼓励银行购买更多的国债。毕竟，美国政府是商业银行的监管者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, moving beyond these more Treasury-only things, there's also other things they can do. Now, there's this very interesting post by a professor of economics in Turkey showing that in Turkey, when they wanted to suppress yields, what they did was they forced the banks to load up on bonds, and that suppressed yields for a period of time. Actually, apparently through the election, and then once the election was over, everything went back to normal. So the next thing they could do is to heavily encourage banks to buy more Treasuries. Again, the U.S. government is a regulator of commercial banks.
当然，银行在很多事情上都需要政府的支持。比如说，假设你是一家银行，想与另一家银行合并。通常这需要监管机构的批准。你可能会说，嘿，你想进行这次合并？很好。那么你有多少美国国债？或者你可以去和大型银行交涉，说嘿，我们听说你对监管，比如巴塞尔协议等感到担忧。嘿，我们已经做了很多工作，让你的业务更有利润、更成功。你能在国债这件事上帮帮我们吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, of course, the banks kind of need government support to do all sorts of things. For example, let's say you're a bank and you wanted to have a merger with another bank. Usually that requires an okay by the regulators. And, you know, maybe you could say that, hey, you want to do this merger? Great. How many Treasury bonds do you have? Or maybe if you can go talk to a mega bank and say, hey, you know, we hear that you're concerned about, you know, regulation, you know, Basel and all that stuff. Hey, we've been doing really a lot of work to make your business more profitable, more successful. Could you help us out with this thing about the bonds?
过了一段时间，我们确实降低了你的资本需求。所以，你知道，为什么不做一些爱国的事情呢？这也是可能发生的事情。此外，还有一种可能是，如果你回想一下，比如，当抵押贷款利率过高时，联邦住房金融局（FHFA）的主管Pulte就曾指示房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）购买2000亿美元的抵押债券以试图降低利率。虽然Pulte和Bestin不是至交好友，但我认为他非常愿意取悦总统。所以，我看不出有什么理由阻止他要求房利美和房地美加杠杆，发行大量短期机构债券，同时大量购买国债。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
After a while, we did reduce your capital requirements. So, you know, why don't you do the patriotic thing? So that's something that could happen as well. And something else that could happen is if you think back to, for example, when mortgage rates were too high, you had Director Pulte of the FHFA just, you know, command Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to go out and buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to try to lower interest rates. And Pulte, although not best friends with Bestin, is someone who I think really wants to please the President. So I see no reason why he couldn't ask Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lever up, issue a whole bunch of short-term agency debentures and just go and just go and just buy a whole bunch of Treasury bonds as well.
所以，你要记住，政府有各种各样的政府资助企业，它们基本上可以控制并强制购买债券。因此，他们可以做很多很多事情。当然，最终的措施是让美联储介入。不过，我觉得我们离这一步还很遥远。我们首先可以尝试许多其他方法。当然，最后的大招是收益率曲线控制，美国在1940年代用过这个方法，日本最近也用了，尽管日本的债务与GDP的比率大约是美国的两倍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, remember, the government has all sorts of government-sponsored enterprises that basically control and can go and force to go and buy bonds. So there are so many, many things that they can do. The ultimate thing that could be done, of course, is to get the Fed involved. I think we're, you know, really far from that. There are so many other things that we can do first. The nuclear option, of course, is yield curve control, which the U.S. did in the 1940s and Japan did recently, even though the debt-to-GDP ratio of Japan is, like, twice as high as the U.S.
有些人说，哦，不，你不能进行收益率曲线控制。但朋友，这完全是胡说八道，对吧？只要有印钞机，你就能进行收益率曲线控制。超级简单。这会对货币和其他方面产生负面影响，但你可以轻松做到。另一个可以谈论的点是，正如我在推特上提到的，美联储实际上有三个任务，对吧？价格稳定、充分就业，当然，还有适度的长期利率。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There are some people saying that, oh, no, you can't do yield curve control. Well, dude, that's total nonsense, right? If you have a money printer, you can do yield curve control. Super easy. We'll have negative implications on the currency and other stuff, but you can easily do it. One other thing you can talk about is, so, as I've suggested on Twitter, the Fed has actually three mandates, right? Price stability, full employment, and, of course, moderate long-term interest rates.
现在，什么是适度的长期利率，没有人知道，而这正是它的妙处。因为没有人确切知道，你可以借此指出这个问题，并提出自己的论点，试图促使美联储采取行动。虽然这更困难，但拥有第三个任务确实为至少进行某种政治论证打开了大门，这可能会引导某种行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this, what is moderate long-term interest rates, nobody knows, and that's kind of the beauty of it. If nobody knows, you know, you can point to this and make an argument and try to get the Fed to do something. Again, that's more difficult, but having that third mandate really opens up the door to at least make some sort of political argument that could, opens the door to some sort of action.
因此，无论如何，我从这个事件中得出的重要结论是，5.3%的长期债券利率对财政部来说过高，他们会想办法解决这个问题。我相信他们有足够多的工具可以应对这一情况。所以，我并不担心收益率会继续攀升。当然，最理想的情况就是伊朗战争能得到某种解决方案。一旦这发生，我很容易想象长期债券收益率会降到5%以下。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, in any case, the important thing that I take away from this episode is that 5.3% on the long bond is too much for the Treasury, and they're going to do something about it. And what I believe is that they have more than enough tools in the toolkit to handle this. So, I'm really not worried about yields going higher and more. Of course, the best thing, of course, would be some sort of resolution in the Iran war. When that happens, you know, I could easily see the long bond below 5%.
希望那很快就会发生。好的。那么，下周将是另一个令人激动的一周。我们将看看债券市场是否会考验财政部长的决心。无论如何，周一见分晓。好的，下周再和大家聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hopefully, that will happen soon. All right. So, next week is going to be another exciting week. We'll see if the bond market tests the Treasury Secretary's resolve. Anyway, find out on Monday. All right. Talk to you guys next week.