Why Inflation Could Be Good News for Japan
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以下是这段内容的中文翻译：
彭博社播客“特朗普通胀学”由Stephanie Flanders主持，彭博高级经济学家Taro Kimura和全球经济报道高级编辑Chris Anstey作为嘉宾，深入探讨了日本复杂的经济转型，重点关注日元的大幅走弱及其对全球金融市场的更广泛影响。
讨论强调了日元的显著贬值，五年前日元兑美元汇率为110日元，如今却跌至区区70美分（*译者注：原文此处数据可能存在笔误，与日元大幅贬值背景下通常的日元兑美元汇率表达方式（如1美元兑150日元）不符，此处按原文直译*）。这种波动性恰逢美国30年期国债收益率达到几十年来的高点，徘徊在5.4%左右。讨论中提及的一个值得注意的事件是，由财政部长斯科特·贝桑特（Scott Besant）领导的美国最近采取了联合干预措施以支撑日元——这是30年来首次此类行动。
木村太郎解释了日本独特的经济发展轨迹，它正摆脱上世纪90年代资产价格泡沫破裂后，以通货紧缩、银行危机和工资停滞为特征的“失去的三十年”。这种转变始于俄乌战争，战争推高了能源成本，并随之推高了企业物价。这使得工会多年来首次要求提高工资，助长了“稳定的通货膨胀流”，这在很大程度上被视为对工人及经济的利好。
新任首相高市早苗（Sanai Takaiichi）抓住了这一势头，提出了“日本回来了”的叙事，推行旨在重建供应能力和吸引私人投资的刺激性财政政策，这促成了股市翻倍。然而，一个关键的紧张点源于高市不愿看到日本央行（BOJ）激进加息，这一立场显著导致了日元的持续疲软。
Chris Anstey提供了历史背景，回顾了1985年旨在提振日元的《广场协议》。他指出，美国最近的干预与以往不同（例如1998年财政部长鲍勃·鲁宾协助日本进行金融体系改革），似乎是贝桑特试图鼓励高市允许日本央行加快加息。贝桑特担心日本央行在通胀问题上“落后于曲线”，认为稳定日元对全球金融市场至关重要。Anstey还指出贝桑特干预的戏剧性，包括故意显露写有“买入日元”字样的笔记本，以及卖出欧元买入日元的非传统策略，这可能是为了避免美元贬值或影响美国资产。
弱势日元虽然由于通胀加速而具有政治敏感性，但对于从事出口和对外直接投资的大型日本企业而言，它却是一个福音，因为它们的海外利润在汇回国内时价值会显著更高。这也符合高市通过吸引外国投资来建立国内供应的雄心。
关于日本央行的货币政策，专家组承认，在黑田（Kuroda）和植田（Ueda）两位行长的管理下，从超低甚至负利率向正利率（目前为1%）的过渡“相当顺利”，尽管对“套利交易”平仓存在担忧，但避免了重大的金融危机。
一个关键的潜在因素是日本庞大的公共债务，达到GDP的200%——位居世界首位。通胀虽然带来市场挑战，但通过减轻公共债务的实际负担，被视为对政府有利。然而，高市激进的财政政策，加上外界认为对日本央行维持低利率的压力，在与债券市场之间产生了“沟通不畅”，导致了对长期通胀和利率上行压力的担忧。
从结构上看，日本的人口老龄化和劳动力短缺历史上推动了企业向海外投资。即使国内活力重现，这些短缺也迫使企业继续进行海外投资，从而导致了日元的结构性抛售压力。尽管高市旨在通过投资实体人工智能等领域来克服劳动力限制，从而扭转这一趋势，但其成功与否尚不确定。
播客总结认为，虽然日本央行短期内对加息仍持谨慎态度，但日本正逐渐成为一个“正常经济体”。日元和资本流动的最终长期走向将取决于财政政策在重新调整日本供应能力方面的成功。更广泛的启示是，全球债券市场对政府债务水平以及全球各国政府不断上升的长期借贷成本越来越敏感。
This Bloomberg podcast, "Trumponomics," hosted by Stephanie Flanders with guests Taro Kimura (Bloomberg Senior Economist) and Chris Anstey (Senior Editor, Global Economic Coverage), delves into the complex economic transformation of Japan, focusing on the dramatic weakening of the yen and its broader implications for global financial markets.
The discussion highlights the yen's significant depreciation, falling from 110 yen to the dollar five years ago to a mere 70 cents today. This volatility coincides with US 30-year treasury bonds hitting multi-decade highs, hovering around 5.4%. A notable event discussed is the recent joint US intervention, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, to shore up the yen – the first such action in 30 years.
Taro Kimura explains Japan's unique economic trajectory, emerging from "the lost three decades" characterized by deflation, banking crises, and stagnant wages following the asset price bubble collapse in the 1990s. The shift began with the Russia-Ukraine war, which drove up energy costs and, consequently, corporate prices. This, for the first time in many years, prompted unions to demand higher wages, fostering a "steady flow of inflation" that is largely welcomed as a positive for workers and the economy.
The new Prime Minister, Sanai Takaiichi, has capitalized on this momentum with a "Japan is back" narrative, pushing pro-stimulus fiscal policies aimed at rebuilding supply capacity and attracting private investment, which has contributed to a doubling of the stock market. However, a key point of tension arises from Takaiichi's reluctance to see the Bank of Japan (BOJ) aggressively raise interest rates, a stance that contributes significantly to the yen's continued weakness.
Chris Anstey provides historical context, recalling the 1985 Plaza Accord which aimed to strengthen the yen. He notes that the recent US intervention, unlike previous ones (such as in 1998 when Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin assisted Japan with financial system reforms), appears to be an effort by Besant to encourage Takaiichi to allow the BOJ to accelerate interest rate hikes. Besant, concerned about the BOJ being "behind the curve" on inflation, views stabilizing the yen as crucial for global financial markets. Anstey also points out the theatrical nature of Besant's intervention, including a deliberately visible notepad with "buy Japanese yen" and the unconventional strategy of selling euros for yen, possibly to avoid depreciating the dollar or impacting US assets.
The weak yen, while politically sensitive due to accelerating inflation, has been a boon for large Japanese corporates involved in exports and foreign direct investment, as their overseas profits are worth significantly more when repatriated. It also aligns with Takaiichi's ambition to build domestic supply by attracting foreign investment.
Regarding the BOJ's monetary policy, the panel acknowledges that the transition from ultra-low, even negative, interest rates to positive rates (now 1%) has been managed "reasonably smoothly" by Governors Kuroda and Ueda, avoiding a major financial crisis despite concerns about the unwinding of "carry trades."
A critical underlying factor is Japan's enormous public debt, standing at 200% of GDP – the largest in the world. Inflation, while presenting market challenges, is seen as beneficial for the government by reducing the real burden of this debt. However, Takaiichi's aggressive fiscal policy, combined with perceived pressure on the BOJ to maintain lower rates, creates a "communication mismatch" with bond markets, leading to concerns about long-term inflation and upward pressure on interest rates.
Structurally, Japan's aging population and labor shortages have historically driven corporates to invest abroad. Even with renewed domestic vigor, these shortages compel continued overseas investment, contributing to a structural selling pressure on the yen. While Takaiichi aims to reverse this trend by investing in areas like physical AI to overcome labor constraints, its success is uncertain.
The podcast concludes that while the BOJ remains cautious on rate hikes in the short term, Japan is gradually becoming a "normal economy." The ultimate long-term trajectory for the yen and capital flows will depend on the success of fiscal policies in recalibrating Japan's supply capacity. The broader takeaway is that global bond markets are increasingly sensitive to government debt levels and the rising long-term borrowing costs for governments worldwide.
摘要
Can inflation in Japan be a sign of a healthier economy? On this week's episode of Trumponomics, Stephanie Flanders is joined by Taro Kimura, an economist with Bloomberg Economics, and Bloomberg News Senior Editor Chris Anstey to explore the potential cost and benefits of a weakening yen. Together, they examine Japan’s shift away from decades of deflation, why US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened to support the yen and how instability in Japan could spill over into US Treasury markets and raise American borrowing costs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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中英文字稿 
你是否曾好奇过，杰西·科尔是如何让萨凡纳香蕉队经历这样的转变？去年我们遭遇了600万美元的失败。未来我们会面临更大的挑战。到现在，我们有股东和投资者，我定期与他们联系，但得到的答复总是“不”。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Have you ever wondered how Jesse Cole took the Savannah Bananas from this? We had a $6 million failure last year. We're going to have bigger ones as we go. To this? We've got shareholders, investors I've reached out to have regularly. And the answer is always no.
或者说，为什么Elle Duncan会对Netflix的一档体育节目这样评价呢。有时我们会尝试一些大胆的举动，但结果却不尽如人意。如果你喜欢这样的内容，那这就是适合你的节目。这是一档由我Alex Rodriguez和Jason Kelly共同主持的彭博播客节目。在节目中，我们会与体育和商业领域的顶尖人物对话。其中包括NBA名人堂成员Tracy McGrady，他也曾谈到过自己犯下的一个重大错误。我认为我创造了一些很神奇的东西。嗯，不过我失败了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Or why Elle Duncan would say this about a Netflix sports broadcast. Sometimes we're going to take really big swings and we're going to freaking whiff. Then the deal is the show for you. It's a Bloomberg podcast hosted by me, Alex Rodriguez. And me, Jason Kelly. We talked to the biggest names in the world of sports and business. Including NBA Hall of Famer Tracy McGrady on one of his biggest blunders. I think I've created something magical. Mm-hmm. Well, I struck out.
译文：你还会听到我对棒球的一些火热见解。有一些球队老板对我说，这无所谓，比赛必须要改进。它出了问题。如果我们不得不整年暂停比赛，我们会这么做。每周四都会有新节目播出，千万不要错过。节目由彭博音频工作室制作，包括播客、广播和新闻。我是Stephanie Flanders，彭博的政府和经济主管。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you'll even get some of my baseball hot takes. I've had owners tell me, it doesn't matter. The game has to be fixed. It's broken. If we have to lock out the whole year, we will. New episodes air every Thursday. Don't miss out. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. I'm Stephanie Flanders, Head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg.
这是“特朗普经济学”播客，专注于探讨唐纳德·特朗普经济世界中的各种事务。今天，我想花点时间来讨论日本的情况如何影响着特朗普的经济世界，以及我们其他人的经济生活。具体来说，是日本货币的变化。五年前，一美元能兑换110日元。如今，一美元只能兑换到70美分的日元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this is Trumponomics, the podcast that looks at pretty much everything in the economic world of Donald Trump. Today, I wanted to take a bit of time to consider how the economic world of Donald Trump, and the rest of us, is being affected by what's happening in Japan. More particularly, by what's been happening to Japan's currency. Five years ago, 110 yen was worth a dollar. Today, that will only get you 70 cents.
我们现在是在8月18日，星期二进行这次录音，日元今天早上再次下跌。这同一天，全球债券收益率——政府长期借款成本——达到了数十年来的新高。著名的长期债券，美国30年期国债收益率在5.4%左右徘徊，这是近30年来的最高值。日本货币的贬值并不是各地借款成本上涨的唯一原因。我们之前讨论过，有许多长期的结构性因素正在推动全球资金成本上升。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, we're recording this on Tuesday, the 18th of August, and the yen's fallen again this morning, the same day that global bond yields, long-term borrowing costs for governments, have hit multi-decade highs. The famous long bond, the US 30-year treasury bond, was hovering around 5.4%. That's the highest in nearly 30 years. Now, Japan's falling currency isn't the only reason why borrowing costs are going up everywhere. We've discussed before, there are lots of long-term structural forces that are driving the cost of money higher everywhere.
美国政府和许多其他国家在经济不衰退的时候大量借款，这种做法也没有帮助。而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森对日元贬值及其对市场的影响颇为关注，因此最近参与了一次联合干预行动，以支撑日元。这是美国30年来首次进行这样的行动。那么，发生了什么事呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's not helped by the US government and lots of others borrowing a lot when their economies are not in recession. But the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, did care enough about the falling yen and its impact on markets to participate the other day in a joint intervention to shore up the currency. The first time the US has done this kind of thing in 30 years. So, what's going on?
经过多年应对价格下跌和通货紧缩的挑战，日本终于出现了一定程度的通货膨胀，即便这可能意味着货币贬值，但这难道不是个好消息吗？在这个炎热的八月天，这似乎正是我们在“特朗普经济学”中应该深入探讨的话题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
After years of tackling falling prices, deflation, isn't it good news for everyone that Japan finally has a bit of inflation, even if that does mean a weakening currency? In these sultry August days, that seemed like just the kind of thicket of topics that we ought to be getting into on Trumponomics.
我们今天有幸请到了来自东京的嘉宾，彭博社的高级经济学家木村太郎。他负责我们关于日本经济的研究工作，并曾在日本银行担任经济学家。太郎，非常感谢你加入我们的节目。谢谢你们邀请我。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we have joining us from Tokyo, Taro Kimura, Bloomberg's senior economist. He leads our research into Japan's economy, and he did previously work as an economist at the Bank of Japan. Taro, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for having me.
现在，我得说，作为彭博社的经济学家，你也算是一位社交媒体上的红人，这可不常见。你在网上做了很多事情，但有多少人看过你大约一年前发布的那个关于日本货币政策的非常严肃的讲解视频呢？啊，谢谢提到这个。我做的那个关于为什么日本货币政策很重要以及退出负利率政策的视频，观看次数大约近400万，至少超过300万。我没有想到会有这么多观众，但我很高兴大家对日本货币政策感兴趣。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, I should say, unusually for Bloomberg economists, you are also something of a social media sensation. You do lots of things online, but how many people have now viewed your very serious Japanese monetary policy explainer from a year or so ago? Yeah, thanks for mentioning that. My explainer for why Japanese monetary policy matters, exiting negative interest policy, I think it's watched nearly 4 million, at least above 3 million. I wasn't expected, but I'm super happy that people are interested in Japanese monetary policy.
这真是有趣，我们不得不说有些惊讶。在波士顿，我们有Chris Adsty，他是全球经济报道及其他许多方面的资深编辑。Chris，虽然你在社交媒体上不算明星，但我认为你是一个在全球市场与经济互动中非常睿智的老手。你曾在日本生活过一段时间。感谢你的加入。很高兴来到这里。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's interesting, and we have to say just a little bit surprised. In Boston, we have Chris Adsty, who's a senior editor for Global Economic Coverage and Much Else. Chris, you're not as much of a social media star, but I think of you as a very kind of wise old hand on the interaction between global markets and the economy. And you have spent various chunks of your life in Japan. Thanks for joining. Happy to be here.
太郎，我之前顺便提到的这个故事，其实是从一个对日本的好消息开始的，那就是通货膨胀的回归。在其他地方，人们一直觉得通货膨胀过高，很难摆脱。但请简要解释一下为什么日本与众不同。日本经历了所谓的"失去的三十年"，也就是在1990年代初期，日本经历了巨大的资产泡沫破裂之后发生的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Taro, this story I mentioned in passing, I mean, it begins with some good news for Japan, which is the return of inflation. Everywhere else, we've been feeling we had too much inflation and it was difficult to get rid of. But explain very briefly why Japan is different. Japan had experienced something called lost three decades, which is basically after the huge asset price bubble collapsed in early 1990s.
我们遇到了严重的银行问题，公司需要缩减开支，而工会为了保障就业不再要求加薪。这种平衡状态即便在日本经济好转后仍然持续。改变这一局面的，是俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争，其导致的能源成本上升对日本的进口成本非常不利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We had serious banking problem and corporates need to retrench and labor union stopped requesting higher wages in order to secure employment. That kind of equilibrium continued even after Japan is getting a better shape. And what changed was the war between Russia and Ukraine, which triggered a higher energy cost, which is very detrimental for the Japanese import costs.
企业开始提高价格。在企业开始提高价格之后，工会终于要求提高工资。现在，由于工资上涨，我们正经历着稳定的通货膨胀。因此，对于许多人来说，这是他们第一次感受到工资上涨带来的好处，这也是通货膨胀的一个积极方面。在过去，当我在东京的时候就做过几期节目，重点讨论了工资的问题——尽管会出现短期的输入型通胀增长，但由于工资仍相对较低，刺激经济复苏的过程仍然非常漫长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Corporates started to increase prices. And after corporate started to increase prices, the unions finally requested higher wages. And now we have a steady flow of inflation bolstered by higher wages. So now for the first time in many people's lives, workers are starting to enjoy higher wages. And that's a good thing about inflation. We have done episodes in the past when I was in Tokyo, and it was that crucial point about the wages, that you could get a sort of short-term increase in imported inflation. But it was getting a sort of process of reflating the economy was taking a very long time because wages were still quite low.
你所描述的一切，都随着一位极具影响力的新首相竹内早苗的上任而到来。她是日本首位女首相。去年，她在华盛顿宣布，日本回来了。自去年以来，股市已经翻了一番，而长期低迷的局面得到了改善。因此，国家的一部分人感到很振奋，企业对未来也更加乐观。是这样吗，Tara？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And everything that you've described has come with the arrival of a very kind of striking new prime minister, Sanai Takeuchi, the first woman prime minister. She declared in Washington last year, Japan is back. The stock market has more than doubled since last year, which, you know, had a very long time in the doldrum. So a chunk of the country is feeling good. Companies are feeling a bit more positive about the future. Is that right, Tara?
好的，总的来说，高市（指高市早苗）在担任首相时获得了选民非常非常大的政治支持。在二月份的众议院选举中，她取得了历史性的胜利。凭借这种支持，她提出了一项非常支持刺激政策的计划，其中包括财政政策。她称其为负责任和积极的财政政策。其目标是忘掉日本过去三十年里采取的所有刺激措施，如现金补贴或应对危机的其他措施。我们现在要做的是重建我们的供应能力，并让政府承诺进行长期投资，同时吸引私人投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, generally, Takaiichi started her tenure as a prime minister with a very, very large political support from voters. In the February lower house election, she made a historic win. And with that support at her back, she's proposing a very pro-stimulus policy, including a fiscal policy. She calls it responsible and proactive fiscal policy. The aim is forget about all the stimulus measures Japan has taken in the last three decades, you know, cash handouts or whatever the measures to cope with crisis. What we are doing from now is rebuild our supply capacity and government commit to a long-term investment and crowd in private investment.
我认为市场，包括选民，都喜欢这个想法。这就是股价表现强劲的原因。而她的政策立场的另一个特点是，她不喜欢日本央行加息。这正是导致目前日元走弱的问题。是的，我正想问你这一点。所以尽管有很多积极因素，但这一切的副作用是中央银行和首相都不太愿意看到利率上升。当然，通常在通货膨胀时我们会看到利率上升。但没有加息的情况下，日元看起来不太有吸引力，因而在贬值。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think the markets, including the voters, liked the idea. And that's why the stock prices are buoyant. And what's also the characteristic of her policy stance is she doesn't like the Bank of Japan's rate hike. And that's making a weaker yen issue exactly right now. Yeah, so I was going to ask you about that. So the byproduct of all this, although there's lots of positives, is you have a central bank and certainly a prime minister that's not very keen to see higher interest rates. But, of course, we would normally see higher interest rates in the face of inflation. And without the higher interest rates, the yen doesn't look very attractive and it's falling.
这就是基本的想法吗？没错。我认为日元如此疲软的一个根本原因是，尽管日本银行正进入紧缩周期，市场普遍预期由于高市政府对日本银行的被动压力，利率仍然比其他主要经济体低。而且，克里斯，我并不是想让你显得太老，但我确实提到了你与日本有长期的接触历史。你还在今天的通讯中提醒我们，我们之前也经历过这样的时期，日元曾经是焦点，其价值变化得相当快。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Is that the basic idea? That's right. I think an underlying reason why yen is so weak is many market expects, even though Bank of Japan is in a tightening cycle, the lower rates compared to the other major economies is going on because of the passive pressure from Takaiichi government to the Bank of Japan. And Chris, I didn't want to make you sound too old, but I did mention that you had had a long history of engagement with Japan. And you reminded us in the newsletter today that we have been here before, you know, periods where the yen was center stage and it was changing its value pretty quickly.
是的，没错。我第一次接触日元是在我还是个孩子的时候。1985年，我搬到日本，那时候正好是在《广场协议》之前。这个协议是美国和四个盟国共同达成的，目的是让美元贬值。于是，随着时间的推移，日元开始大幅升值，我的零花钱在美元计价上也随之增加了。正如你提到的，财政部长贝桑特在7月31日进行的买入日元的干预行动是自1998年以来的首次类似操作。同样，在1998年，当时的财政部长鲍勃·鲁宾也通过干预支持日本，以促进日本国内的经济变革。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yes, that's right. My first interaction with the yen was when I was a kid and moved to Japan in 1985, just before the Plaza Accord, which the U.S. entered into with four of its allies to drive the dollar down. And so I saw my pocket money grow in dollar terms, at least, as the months went by and the yen started soaring. And as you mentioned, the intervention that Treasury Secretary Besant engaged in on July 31st to buy the yen was the first such operation since 1998. And similarly, in 1998, then Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin was essentially helping Japan at a time when he wanted to endorse economic changes there.
1998年，日本面临的主要问题是金融体系。为了应对泡沫破裂带来的大量坏账问题，他们承诺要调整金融机构的运作。在这种情况下，Besant很可能采取行动，试图推动日本政府加快利率调整步伐。自去年以来，Besant一直担心日本央行在对抗通货膨胀方面行动缓慢。这引发了日本国债市场的阵发性混乱，并且这种影响也蔓延到了美国国债市场，进而影响了美国的借贷成本，这正是Besant所关心的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the big problem in Japan in 1998 was the financial system, and they made some pledges of writing the financial ship with the banks that were overloaded with all this bad debt from the burst bubble. And in this occasion, we see Besant acting most probably to help encourage the Takahichi administration to let the Bank of Japan move a little faster on interest rates. Besant has been concerned since last year that the Bank of Japan is behind the curve on fighting inflation. And this has resulted in periodic kerfuffles in the Japanese government bond market, which is spread over to the U.S. Treasuries market, which is what ultimately he cares about, and U.S. borrowing costs.
所以，如果他能在这里通过购买一些日元来稳定货币和全球金融市场，那这笔钱花得还是很值得的。是的，你提到了《广场协议》，该协议是为了增强日元的实力。但正如我提到的，我们已经有大约五年的时间日元在走弱。在日本，人们对货币贬值的感受有点复杂，不是吗？我想也有一些人并不特别高兴看到通货膨胀，而他们的工资却没有上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if he can engage in some yen buying here to stabilize the currency, stabilize global financial markets, it seems money well spent. Yeah, so you talked about the Plaza Record, and the Plaza Record was about strengthening the yen. But now we've had, as I mentioned, we've had sort of a good five years where the yen has been weakening. It's something of a mixed picture, isn't it, in Japan in terms of how people feel about the falling currency? And I guess there's also some people who are not particularly happy to have inflation if their wages aren't going up.
好的，我认为这是一个非常复杂的故事。要说日元疲软对经济是好是坏，真的很难。因为传统上，日本的大型企业要么是出口商，要么是大规模的海外直接投资者，也就是说，他们在全球范围内开展业务。因此，日元走弱对大型企业的利润是有利的。实际上，利润水平正在飙升，达到了历史新高。我认为高市政府基本上认为这是有利的。因为你在海外获得的所有利润在日本突然变得更值钱了。是的，是这样的，如果日元变得更弱的话。而且，高市还有一个目标，就是提升国内的供应能力。因此，如果有外国公司对在日本投资感兴趣，日元疲软对他们是有利的。也正因为如此，高市政府最初对日元走弱并不太担心。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. I think it's a very mixed story. It's really hard to say whether weak or yen is good or bad for the economy, because traditionally, Japan's large corporates are either exporters or very big FDI-er, which means, you know, spread the business all around the world. So weak or yen, basically, is good for profits for large corporates. And actually, the level of the profits is surging and registering history high. And I think the Takaiichi government basically thinks that's favorable. Because all these profits you make overseas are suddenly worth a lot more in Japan. That's right. That's right, if the yen's got weaker. And another ambition of Takaiichi is build up domestic supply capacity. So if there is a foreign company who are interested in investing in Japan, the weaker yen is good for them. So that's why Takaiichi initially wasn't concerned about a weaker yen.
但是考虑到美元兑日元接近164，这是日元自“广场协议”以来最弱的时候。总是有新闻标题说日元处于40年低点，这将加剧通胀。因此，通胀和日元走弱更容易成为政治议题的首要问题。而且，克里斯，回到这个话题，你给我们梳理了这些重大干预的历史背景。接下来，我们将讨论这次最新的干预能否像“广场协议”那样成功，那是一种更协调、更正式的协议。不过，这次干预有一些相当不寻常的方面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But given the dollar yen getting closer to 164, which is, you know, the yen is weakest since the level of the plaza accords. So there's always a news headline saying the yen is 40-year law and that will accelerate inflation. So therefore, the inflation and the weaker yen is becoming easier to be on top of the political issue list. Yeah. And Chris, just going back to that, you gave us the kind of historical sweep on these big interventions. And I guess we'll get into in a minute whether or not it could be as successful, this latest round of intervention, as that sort of plaza accord, that slightly more coordinated, more formal agreement. But there were some pretty unusual aspects of this intervention.
我们的财政部长是一位对冲基金交易员，而不是那种长期在高盛等公司工作，并习惯于通过日元和其他金融工具赚钱的人。这次事件的处理方式，使用的工具和一些小技巧，都与以往有所不同。尤其值得注意的是，他在一次干预措施前，显然故意让记者看到他的笔记。这整个操作，确实如你所说，带有一些戏剧性。此外，还在戴维营举行了一次内阁会议，当时财政部长贝桑特背对记者坐着。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We have, as a treasury secretary, someone who is a hedge fund trader, not someone who is sort of sitting in Goldman Sachs and elsewhere and has got used to sort of making money off the yen and other things over the years. And the way this all went down was both the tools and some of the sort of tricks around it were rather different than we've had in the past. Not least, he rather sort of obviously showed, allowed journalists to see his notepad at one point before he'd done the intervention. Yes, there was definitely a theatric quality, as you say, to this whole operation. Yes, there was a cabinet meeting, actually out at Camp David, where Besant was sitting with his back to the reporters.
他记事本上的待办事项清单上只有一项：购买5到10亿日元。他非常清楚这写在上面的内容对记者是一目了然的。这件事情发生在他几个月前在白宫的简报会上提到这件事之前。因此，他完全知道自己在做什么。当然，实际的干预行动似乎是通过欧元而不是美元进行。美国财政部有一种特定的基金，有时被称为“小金库”，即外汇稳定基金，这个基金的历史可以追溯到20世纪30年代。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And visible on his notepad was a to-do list that had one item, buy Japanese yen, 5 to 10 billion. He knew full well that this was visible to the reporters. This had happened before he even mentioned it in a briefing at the White House several months previously. So he knew full well what he was doing. And then, of course, the actual intervention itself appears to have been via the euro, not dollars. And the U.S. Treasury has this specific kind of sometimes referred to as a little slush fund, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which dates all the way back to the 1930s, actually.
这笔资金超过2000亿美元，而且在财政部如何使用方面有相对的灵活性。至少之前，它包括了一定数量的欧元和其他一些资产。目前看来，Besant决定将欧元换成日元。他并没有明确说明这样做的具体原因。有些猜测认为，可能是他不想刻意压低美元的价值，因为这可能会导致美国资产的贬值，包括国债，并且增加美国的借贷成本。我在想的一件事是，考虑到外汇市场，美元兑日元是非常流动的，仅次于欧元兑美元的交易对。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's got over 200 billion in it, and it's reasonably flexible in terms of how the Treasury can use it. It has or had, at least, some amount of euros and a number of other assets. And it appears that Besant decided to sell euros for yen. He hasn't kind of spelled out exactly why he did that. Some speculation has it that, well, he didn't want to drive down the dollar specifically because, again, he doesn't want to depreciate U.S. assets, including treasuries, and drive up U.S. borrowing costs. One thing I wonder is, if you think about the foreign exchange market, dollar-yen is super liquid. It's the number two to euro-dollar.
但是相比之下，欧元对日元的交叉汇率并不是那么广泛交易。所以也许他认为，通过这种方式可以获得更大的收益，或者在这种情况下，可以获得更多的“欧元收益”。还有另一种解释，即通过欧元进行交易的一个可能原因是担心日本方面可能会干预市场，他们可能会抛售美国资产，比如国债，以此来支持日元，这会导致这些资产的收益率上升。这就引出了一个问题，即这一切是否真的导致了长期利率的上升，从而增加了政府和其他各方的借贷成本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But the euro-yen cross is not all that well-traded in comparison. So maybe he thought he could get a little bit more bang for the buck, or in this case, bang for the euro. There was another interpretation, which was that one of the possible reasons to do it through the euro was a concern that if the Japanese were sort of intervening in the market, they were going to be selling their U.S. assets, their Treasury bonds, pushing up the yields on those in order to be supporting the yen. So that gets us into that question of whether all of this is really feeding into higher long-term interest rates, borrowing costs for governments and for everyone else.
克里斯，你怎么看？证据显示，Bethan确实担心国债的影响。实际上，就在昨天，最新的美国财政部关于外国持有国债的报告出来了。虽然这个数据有些滞后，是6月份的，但它显示在6月份，日本的国债持有量减少了264亿美元。不过，他们仍持有高达1.12万亿美元的国债，所以还有很多可以消化的部分。但至少截至6月，这显示了日本国债持有量的走势，并可能影响了Bethan最近几周的想法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Chris, what do you think? The evidence suggests that, indeed, Bethan is concerned about the impact on treasuries. And just yesterday, actually, the latest U.S. Treasury report on foreign holdings of treasuries. This is a little dated. It's back for June. But it did show that in the month of June, Japan's holdings fell by $26.4 billion. Now, they're still pretty hefty at $1.12 trillion. So there's a lot to, you know, work down. But it did show, as of June anyway, the direction of travel for Japan's holdings and perhaps fed into Besson's thinking in recent weeks.
不要等到新闻见报。在10月13日至15日于新德里举行的彭博全球新经济论坛上，实时观看新闻的展开。当全球领导人齐聚一堂，讨论从地缘政治、全球贸易到技术和世界新权力格局等塑造我们未来的重大问题时，您将亲临其境，坐在最前排，聆听这些至关重要的对话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Don't wait for headlines. Watch the news unfold in real time at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum, live from New Delhi, October 13th through the 15th. As global leaders come together to tackle the biggest issues shaping our future, from geopolitics and global trade to technology and the world's new balance of power, you'll have a front-row seat to the conversations that matter most.
对于那些不习惯思考全球大额投资流动的人来说，这个话题确实有些困难。不过，正如克里斯提到的那些数字，日本持有的美国国债官方持仓量，以及整体上日本积累了大量海外资产，尤其是在这些年来利率非常低、经济增长速度并不快的情况下。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's a difficult topic for people who are not used to thinking about big investment flows around the world. But just those numbers that Chris has referred to, the holdings that the Japanese have, the official holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. And, of course, Japan as a whole has a lot of foreign assets it's built up, particularly in all these years where interest rates have been very low, where the economy has not been necessarily growing very fast.
那么，这件事情的现状如何？为什么日本在海外拥有这么多资产？如果这些资金现在开始回流到国内，而日本的情况显得更加乐观，会有什么可能的影响呢？是的，我认为这一切始于日本上世纪90年代经济的停滞。由于国内需求疲软，企业开始寻求海外市场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what is the state of play with that? Why has Japan ended up with quite so many kind of assets abroad and what's the possible implications if we continue to see that money flowing back now that things are looking a bit more upbeat in Japan itself? That's right. I think the starting gun was Japan's stagnant economy back in the 1990s. And because of the weak domestic demand, the corporate started to seek for foreign markets.
同时，日本老龄化问题变得更加严峻。这导致了日本劳动力短缺的问题。我解释说，日本的经济正在恢复活力。我们现在面临通货膨胀，对日本来说，这是个好现象。然而，如果那些通过出口或海外业务在弱势日元中赚取大量资金的日本企业想要在国内投资，他们将面临劳动力短缺的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, simultaneously, Japan's aging population gets more serious. And that leads to a problem of Japan's labor shortages. So I explained Japan's economy is gaining vigor. We have now inflation, which is regarded a good thing for Japan. But if the Japanese corporates, which earns a lot of money from weaker yen by exports or a business abroad, if they try to invest domestically, they face labor shortages.
因此，他们在国内找不到投资空间，只好继续在国外投资。他们持续在海外工厂或研发领域进行再投资。这会导致日元走弱的趋势。此外，日本政府同特朗普政府达成一致，日本企业将在美国进行大规模投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, therefore, they can't find room to invest domestically. So they ended up continuing to invest abroad. They continue to reinvest in, like, foreign factories or R&Ds. So that's going to be creating a weaker trend in the yen. And also, the Japanese government agreed with the Trump administration that the Japanese corporate is going to make a massive investment in the United States.
这也将加强这种趋势。因此，我认为更强劲的外国直接投资，尤其是流向美国的投资，正在对日元造成结构性抛售压力。这自2022年以来是日元疲软的一个重要原因。问题在于日本企业是否最终会重新在日本投资，并将资金汇回日本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's going to also enhance the trend. So, therefore, I think the stronger FDI, particularly towards the United States, is creating a structural selling pressure to the yen. And that accounts a very large part of the yen weakness since 2022. And the question is whether the Japanese corporate is going to eventually invest back in Japan, repatriate back in Japan.
这正是高市（Takaiichi）正在努力做的事情。日本的劳动力短缺问题就像是日本制造商有机器，但没有人来操作；企业有卡车、出租车或公交车，但没有司机。而高市想要做的是大量投资于实体人工智能，以便机器可以在没有人力的情况下运行。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's what Takaiichi is trying to do. Japan's labor shortage is something like Japanese manufacturers have machines, but they don't have operators. Japanese corporates have trucks or taxis or buses, but they don't have drivers. And what Takaiichi is trying to do is invest massively in physical AI so that the machine can operate without human.
如果这件事要成功，日本企业需要重新调整。可能存在重新投资日本的机会。这正是高市所希望做的。但其中有很多风险。这种政府投资是否奏效，是一个价值百万、甚至数十亿美元的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If that's going to be successful, the Japanese corporate is going to re-sync. Probably there's room to invest back in Japan. And that's what Takaiichi is wanting to do. But there are many risks. Whether such a government investment works or not is a million-dollar, billion-dollar question.
这很复杂，因为我们谈论的是一些长期的结构性问题，或者至少是供给侧的因素。比如，日本的一些真实公司在国外赚取利润，并且将这些利润留在国外。这不可避免地会对货币施加压力，因为资金没有流回日本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's so complicated because we're talking about these long-term structural things, or at least the sort of supply-side forces, with real companies in Japan having their profits abroad and they're keeping them abroad. And that inevitably then still sort of feeding the pressure on the currency because they're keeping the money outside of Japan.
另一方面，很多听众可能已经听说过套息交易和其他类似的投资活动。这些短期资金流动已经持续了许多年，都是基于一个假设：日本的利率会一直保持在很低的水平。然而，现在如果日本真的开始出现自我持续的通货膨胀，这些利率可能就会持续上升，理论上会变得更接近世界其他地区的正常水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But on the other hand, lots of people listening will have heard about the carry trade and other things. There's been these kind of shorter-term flows of investment, which have been for many, many years, have been based on the assumption that Japanese interest rates were going to stay very low. And now, potentially, if we really do have self-sustaining inflation in Japan, those interest rates are just going to keep going up, in theory, become a bit more normal relative to the rest of the world.
克里斯，这是人们多年来一直谈论的话题。到目前为止，过渡还算顺利。但是，当日本从长期的通缩和非常低的利率状态中走出时，我们应该多担心这会在国际市场上引发一些真正的波动？或者说，我们是否可以认为已经度过了最困难的时期？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Chris, this is something people have talked about over the years. So far, the transition has not been too bumpy. But as we move out of this very long-term regime for Japan, the deflation, the very low interest rates, how worried should we be that there's going to be some real bumps on the international markets as a result of that? Or have we already got through the worst, could you argue?
当然，这很难确定。而且，目前没有太多可靠的数据来衡量杠杆交易的规模，特别是借入低息的日元，并将其投入到海外高收益资产中的情况。不过，我们知道，日本央行在过去几年中已经从大规模的量化宽松政策和负利率转向了量化紧缩政策。也就是说，他们不再扩张资产负债表，而是缩减规模，并且实现了正利率，目前的基准利率已达到1%，这是几十年来的最高水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's impossible to know, of course. And there aren't great data points on the extent of leveraged trading in terms of borrowing cheaply in yen and parking it in higher-yielding assets overseas. But what we do know is that the Bank of Japan, over the past several years, has moved from massive quantitative easing and sub-zero interest rates to quantitative tightening, shrinking their balance sheet rather than expanding it, and to positive interest rates with a 1% benchmark now that's the highest in decades.
我们看到了什么呢？并没有出现重大的金融危机。我认为，他们实际上把过渡做得相当好。过渡是从前任总裁黑田东彦开始的，他开始慢慢地但坚定地推动正常化，这一过程在植田总裁的领导下继续进行。时不时地，人们会说他们不理解日本央行的沟通方式。他们减少了债券购买，却表示仍在宽松。我认为这都是精心计算过渡的一部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And what have we seen? There's been no major financial crisis. They've actually, I would argue, made the transition pretty well. The transition began under former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He started to normalize slowly but surely, and it's continued under Governor Ueda. And every once in a while during that process, people would say, you know, we don't understand Bank of Japan communications. They scale back their bond purchases, but they're saying they're still easing. I think that was all part and parcel of a calculated transition.
我认为日本银行非常清楚大量解除套息交易的危险以及这对全球金融系统构成的风险。因此，有人认为他们步伐落后了一点，包括财政部长贝桑特的观点。但是，也许我们不希望他们走在前面，因为突然从这样超刺激的货币政策转变可能会产生剧烈的影响。未来的情况如何，我们还需观察。我们知道的是，目前没有出现金融危机，日本成功地实现了相对平稳地过渡。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think the Bank of Japan was well aware of the danger of a huge unwinding of carry trades and the risk that that posed for the global financial system. Now, that's left them arguably, including Treasury Secretary Besant's view, a little behind the curve. But maybe we didn't want them to be ahead of the curve because a dramatic transition from such ultra-stimulative monetary policies could have been quite disruptive. Let's see how we go going forward. What we do know is that there has been no financial crisis, and Japan has managed the transition reasonably smoothly.
根据Chris的描述，尽管近期关于日元和美国干预的担忧或讨论有所增加，但日元贬值可能比日本突然加息更容易应对，因为加息会对所有这些投资交易产生巨大冲击。可以说，更大的背景问题与其讨论日元或者即便是日本的通胀，不如说在于包括日本在内的许多国家持有的债务规模相对于其经济体量过大，而全球债券市场正对此逐渐有所反应。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, as Chris describes, maybe, even though there has been this kind of recent concern or discussion around the yen and the intervention by the US, it could be that the yen falling is a lot easier to cope with than sudden interest rate increases in Japan, which would be such a jolt to all of these investment trades. Both of you, I guess, we could argue, you know, the big picture here is not so much the yen nor even the inflation in Japan. It's the fact that so many governments, Japan, most of all, is sitting on so much debt relative to the size of its economy, and global bond markets are really waking up to that.
好的，回到关于通货膨胀对日本经济有利的论点。另一个原因是通货膨胀对债务人有利，因为它会降低债务人的实际负担。而日本政府是全球最大规模的公共债务发行者，因此它实际上能从通货膨胀中获益。这正是高市早苗（Takaiichi）在其激进财政政策上如此大胆的原因。因此，高市的财政政策观点与传统市场对财政政策的看法之间存在沟通不一致。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. Going back to the argument why inflation is good for Japan's economy. Another reason is the inflation is good for debtor. It's going to reduce the real burden for debtor. And given the Japanese government is the largest public debt issuer in the world, they really enjoy the benefit from inflation. And that's precisely the reason why Takaiichi is so going boldly on her aggressive fiscal policy. So there's a communication mismatch between Takaiichi's view on fiscal policy and traditional market view on fiscal policy.
这种沟通不畅正在造成收益率的震动。我认为高市的立场是有道理的，她有理由抱有雄心。但我认为，关于日本国债收益率的所有震动，政府在传达她对财政政策的理解以及他们在市场中想要实现的目标时遇到了困难。这也使得市场认为高市不愿意让日本央行加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that communication gap is creating a yield jolt. I think Takaiichi's stance makes sense, and she has reason to be ambitious. But I think that all the jolts regarding the Japanese government bond yields, I think the government is struggling to communicate her understanding of the fiscal policy and what they're trying to do with the market. And that comes with a market understanding that Takaiichi is also reluctant to let the BOJ hike rates.
因此，在支持刺激政策的政府施压下，日本央行（BOJ）被要求慢慢加息，这意味着债券市场对长期通货膨胀和通货膨胀风险存在巨大担忧。想想看，在过去二十年中，日本的债券交易员一直担心通货紧缩的风险。而现在，他们需要担心通货膨胀的风险。这将对利率产生巨大的上行压力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So with the pro-stimulus government, which pressures BOJ to go rate hike slowly, that means there's a huge fear among the bond markets about long-term inflation and long-term inflation risks. So think about that. In the last two decades, the bond traders in Japan were worried about deflation risks. And now they need to be concerned about the inflation risk. That's going to create a huge upward pressure on the interest rates.
我认为这就是为什么市场对日本利率的突然上涨感到恐慌的原因。但这是从通货紧缩经济转向通货膨胀经济的自然结果。市场需要一些时间来消化这一结构性变化并考虑投资策略。我们还应该记住，你说这是最大的债务问题。我的意思是，我们倾向于认为，当债务大约占国内生产总值的100%时，即相当于一年的全部经济产出，这确实是一个很大的数字。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think that's the reason why markets are so spooked about the sudden surge in Japanese interest rates. But that's natural consequences of the shift from deflationary economy to inflationary economy. And the markets need some time to digest the structural shift and think about investment strategy. And we should remember, you say it's the biggest issue of debt. I mean, we tend to think with debt sort of around 100% of GDP, the equivalent of the whole output of the economy in a year, that that's a lot.
但在日本，这一数字是双倍的，相当于国内生产总值的200%。克里斯，这似乎仍然是过去几周的大新闻。即便在围绕日元的一切热情中，这也是一个潜在的重要话题——债券市场持续关注因债务而导致的长期借贷成本增加，而各国政府似乎并不急于解决这一问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But it's double that in Japan. It's 200% of GDP. Chris, that feels like still the big story for the last few weeks. And even the sort of big story that's lurking in the sidelines of all of this excitement around the yen, just the fact that bond markets are continuing to look at a long-term increase in borrowing costs for all this debt, that governments don't seem to be very worried about getting rid of.
是的，在任何地方，实行财政纪律都不太受欢迎，或许除了希腊。我前几天看到希腊提前偿还了一些援助资金，这相当引人注目。我对你的看法很感兴趣，太郎。我们了解到，最近日本在讨论将过去几年投资到海外的一部分政府养老金资金转回到日本，或许这可以有助于稳定日本的国债市场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, it's certainly not politically popular anywhere to take on fiscal discipline, except perhaps in Greece, which I saw the other day is paying down some of its bailout money early, which is pretty striking. I'm interested, Taro, what your perspective would be. We know that there have been discussions in Japan recently about perhaps some of the government pension money that's been plowed overseas over the past several years moving back to Japan and perhaps helping to stabilize the Japanese government bond market.
你认为这个秋天我们会迎来日本央行加息以及政府养老金投资GPIF宣布将资金投入日本债券市场的"双重打击"吗？我认为至少短期内不会发生这种情况，因为日本央行对加息立场仍非常谨慎。虽然在日美联合干预以支撑日元后可能会有改变，但传统上，日本央行特别是现任行长上田在任期内一直都很谨慎。没有迹象表明日本希望通过加息来吸引海外投资者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Do you think that we could get a one-two punch this fall of a Bank of Japan interest rate increase and a government pension fund GPIF announcement of plowing money into the bond market in Japan? I don't think that's going to be a case, at least in the short term, because still the Bank of Japan is really cautious on its rate hike stance. Probably it had changed after the joint U.S.-Japan joint intervention to prop up the yen, but traditionally the Bank of Japan, at least the governor Uedas in his tenure, he's very cautious. So there's no such signal that Japan wants to increase the interest rate so that Japan is invest-worthy for many foreign investors.
尽管如此，日本确实已经从“失去的十年”中走出来，并且正在逐渐成为一个正常的经济体。如果财政政策和财政战略取得成功，日本开始重新调整其供应能力，那么从长远来看，我们可能会注意到大量资金流回日本，这或许意味着日元走弱趋势的结束。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That said, it's true that Japan has evacuated from Los Decayes and Japan is finally becoming a normal economy. And if fiscal policy, fiscal strategy ends up successfully and Japan started to recalibrate its supply capacity, probably in the long run, we noticed that many of the monies are coming back to Japan that may call an end to a weaker trajectory for the Japanese yen.
好吧，如果你读到了这里，那你对当前日本的形势已经很了解了，同时也对全球市场的热门话题有了一定的认识，并且让我们密切关注美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特。非常感谢塔拉·木村和克里斯·安斯蒂。谢谢你，斯蒂芬妮。非常荣幸。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, if you got this far, you know a lot about the current situation in Japan, but also about the issues that are enlivening conversations around global markets and also making us keep a careful eye on the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant. Tara Kimura and Chris Anstey, thank you so much. Thank you very much, Stephanie. Thank you. It was a pleasure.
如果你想看的话，有一系列由彭博制作的原创视频，每个大约八到十分钟，都是关于日本的。其中一个特别引人注目，我们一开始就提到过，题为"日本的大规模货币实验结束了，接下来呢？"这个视频，你可以在YouTube上找到与其他视频一起观看。非常感谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you want to see, there's been a series of Bloomberg Originals, eight or nine-minute, ten-minute videos about Japan, but the one that was a real blockbuster that we were talking about at the beginning is Japan's massive money experiment is over, now what? Which you can find on YouTube along with the others. Thank you very much.
感谢收听由彭博社制作的《特朗普经济学》。我是主持人史蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯，同我一起参与节目的还有彭博社驻东京的资深经济学家木村太郎和驻波士顿的高级编辑克里斯·安斯蒂。《特朗普经济学》由山姆·阿萨迪和摩西·安达姆制作，声音设计由布莱克·梅普尔斯和凯利·加里负责。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thanks for listening to Trumponomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted by me, Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Bloomberg Senior Economist Taro Kimura in Tokyo and Senior Editor Chris Anstey in Boston. Trumponomics was produced by Sam Asadi and Moses Andam and sound design was by Blake Maples with Kelly Gary.
为了帮助其他人找到并享受我们的节目，请在你收听的地方给《Trumponomics》一个很高的评分和评价。下周在《领袖对话》中，我将邀请哈佛商学院教授琳达·希尔讨论CEO们成功所需的知识。成功并不是关于他们个人，而是关于组织本身。我们会探讨在人工智能时代如何领导。那需要很大的信心。此外，还会讨论为什么杰出的领导者要拥抱冲突。你需要放大差异。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And to help others find and enjoy us, please rate and review Trumponomics really highly wherever you listen. Next week on Leaders with me, Francine Lacqua. I speak with Harvard Business School Professor Linda Hill about what CEOs need to know to be successful. It really is not about them. It is about the organization. About how to lead in the age of AI. That requires a lot of confidence. And why great leaders embrace conflict. You need to amplify difference.
收听和观看《领袖风采》这个播客节目，可以通过彭博电视台或任何您喜欢的平台收听，由我，弗朗辛·拉夸主持。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Listen and watch Leaders, the podcast, with me, Francine Lacqua, on Bloomberg TV or wherever you get your podcasts.