Live: Tesla Q2 Earnings Call 2026 (TSLA)
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摘要
Listen to Elon Musk and Tesla management discuss Tesla's Q2 2026 financial results and answer questions from investors and analysts. Join Rob Maurer for a live blog highlighting key information, followed by reaction to the call and earnings report.
For reaction to Tesla's shareholder letter and earnings report: https://youtube.com/live/7Pv0QXYBpPQ
X: https://www.x.com/robmaurer
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast
Tesla Referral: https://ts.la/robert47283
#Tesla #TSLA #Investing
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock. This video is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation.
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下午好，大家好，欢迎参加特斯拉2026年第二季度的问答网络直播。 我是投资者关系主管特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德，今天和我一起的有埃隆·马斯克、维巴瓦·塔内贾以及其他多位高管。 我们的第二季度财务结果已于中部时间下午3点左右在更新资料中公布，您可以在与本次网络直播相同的链接上查看。 在这次电话会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务展望并发表前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和期望。 由于多种风险和不确定性，包括我们在最近提交给SEC的文件中提到的风险，实际事件或结果可能会有重大差异。在今天的问答环节中，请把提问限制在一个问题和一个后续问题内。请使用“举手”按钮加入提问队列。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2026 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vibhava Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.
在我们进入问答环节之前，埃隆有一些开场发言。埃隆？谢谢。所以，是的，这是一个非常棒的季度。我们在第二季度实现了创纪录的交付量。我相信Model Y现在已经是全球销量最好的车型，并且在各个方面都在创造记录。所以它的受欢迎程度大幅增长。在那些FSD（完全自动驾驶）获得批准的地区，我们看到FSD的购买率非常高。事实上，我认为对于很多人来说，他们实际上是在购买附带汽车的特斯拉完全自动驾驶，而不是带有FSD的汽车。他们来到美国的门店，基本上表示他们想要购买完全自动驾驶，随便配上哪辆车。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thank you. So, yeah, it's been a great quarter. We achieved record Q2 deliveries. Model Y, I believe, is now, I think it's the best-selling car of any kind in the world and is setting records across the board. So its popularity is increasing tremendously. And we're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take rate of FSD. And, in fact, I think for a lot of people, they're actually buying Tesla full self-driving with a car attached as opposed to a car with FSD. They're coming into our stores in the U.S. and saying they want the full self-driving with whatever car it comes with, essentially.
显然，这是一个重要的需求推动因素。随着我们在不同国家获得对全自动驾驶（FSD）的批准，我认为需求将会有类似的增长。在这方面的前景非常乐观。能源业务也在迅速增长，我认为它将对扩大全球人工智能数据中心的规模起到至关重要的作用。我们正在大力投资于核心业务的发展，并积极为未来做好准备。今年是一个巨大的资本支出年，但我相信我们所投资的一切都会带来令人难以置信的回报。这将是我们见过的最佳资本支出回报。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, clearly, this is a significant demand driver. And as we get approval for FSD in different countries, I think we'll see a similar uptake in demand. So, yeah, it's looking very good on that front. The energy business is also growing incredibly fast and I think will be crucial for the scale-up of artificial intelligence data centers. We're investing a lot in growing the core business and really preparing for the future. So, this is a massive CapEx year, but I'm confident that all the things that we're investing in will yield incredible returns. Really, the best CapEx returns that we've ever seen.
特斯拉团队表现非常出色。SaabCab已经开始生产，我们也已经开始生产并扩大生产规模——我们很快将开始生产Optimus。我们已经开始生产特斯拉半挂卡车，并将很快开始生产Megapack 3。同时，我们已经开始了锂精炼厂和阴极精炼厂的生产。我们还在提高电池单元的生产规模。此外，我们正在准备大规模生产太阳能电池板和太阳能电池。实际上，这包括从硅的精炼到太阳能电池的生产，然后是太阳能的部署，因为未来随着交通和人工智能的电气化，对电力的需求将会非常巨大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the Tesla team has performed incredibly well. The SaabCab has started production and we also have started production and a ramping in – we will soon start production with Optimus. We have started production with the Tesla semi-truck. We'll soon start production with Megapack 3. We've started production with the lithium refinery, the cathode refinery. We also have – we're scaling up battery cell productions, battery cell production. And we're also preparing to do a massive solar panel – like solar cells and panel production. Actually, this is going all the way from silicon refinement to producing the solar cell and then deployment of solar because there's going to be tremendous need for electricity in the future due to electrification of transport and AI, obviously.
我们正在进行一个我们相信是历史上最雄心勃勃的先进基础设施制造能力扩展项目。这是个大事情。这是个大事情。对于自动驾驶出租车，我们的目标非常雄心勃勃。但我们需要谨慎，避免造成任何事故或对任何人造成伤害。虽然仅在美国，每年就有3万到4万起交通事故死亡案例，其中大多数并未引起公众的关注，你几乎不会看到那些事故的报道。但是如果我们哪怕伤害了一个人，那将成为全球新闻头条，监管机构将立即限制我们的活动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, we're working on what we believe is the most ambitious, the most ambitious build out of advanced infrastructure manufacturing capacity ever in history. It's a big deal. It's a big deal. So, with a robot taxi, our goals are very ambitious for a robot taxi, but we do need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone. Although there are, I think, 30,000 to 40,000 automotive deaths per year in the United States alone. Most of those do not generate any threats, you know, you don't really read about almost any of those. But if we injure even one person, it will be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities.
因此，我们不希望伤害任何人，所以在扩展机器人出租车的过程中，我们正以人类所能达到的最快速度进行，同时努力确保完全不造成伤害，理想情况下甚至不伤害宠物。这确实是一个约束条件：我们希望在不对任何人造成伤害的情况下，尽可能快地增长机器人出租车业务。在我们准备在城市启动机器人出租车时，我们会提供实时更新。我们会立即在 X 上发布消息。所以，只要关注 Tesla 在 X 上的账号，就能随时了解我们如何扩展到新的城市。目前，我们已经在佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州的多个城市以及湾区开放了服务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, and we don't want to injure anyone, so we're going as fast as humanly possible in scaling robot taxi while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all and ideally do not even run over a pet. So, that's really the constraint is we want to grow as fast as possible with robot taxi without harm to anyone. And we're providing live updates before robot taxi launch as we open up in the city. We immediately post that on X. So, if you just follow the Tesla account on X, we'll keep you informed as we scale to new cities. We've opened up in a number of cities in Florida and in Texas and, obviously, in the Bay Area.
所以，我想我们将继续以非常非常快的速度在宽度上扩张。看起来每周行驶里程增加超过10%。这意味着一个非常高的复合增长率。关于Optimus，正如我以前说过的，我认为Optimus将会成为有史以来最大的产品，但这也是一个非常复杂的问题需要解决。要制造一个能够自主完成任务的人形机器人，用户只需告诉它去做某件事或给它看一个视频，它就能无需编程地完成任务，这是非常困难的挑战。目前还没有人实现过这样的技术。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, we'll continue to scale, I think, very, very rapidly on quick-width. It looks like more than 10% a week in terms of miles driven. So, it's a very high compound growth rate. So, let's see, Optimus, you know, as you've heard me say before, I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever, but it is a very complex problem to solve. So, it's one of the hardest things to solve, to make an autonomous humanoid robot that can do tasks that you simply ask it to do something or show it a video, it can do the task without any programming. Like, no one's ever achieved this.
在机器人的机电设计中，面临许多挑战，以实现足够的灵活性，同时还要非常可靠，能够经久耐用。也就是说，它需要能够在现场工作而不发生故障。否则，你就会遇到一个70公斤的机器人突然倒下的情况，然后需要像抬尸体一样把它搬走。你懂的，我们要考虑到这些问题。因此，我们不希望Optimus失控。这需要大量的工作来正确设计并扩大生产。我想特别强调的是，扩大生产的挑战是非常大的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And there are many challenges in the electromechanical design of the robot to achieve sufficient dexterity and also be very reliable and have a long wear and tear. Like, meaning it needs to be out in the field and not break down. Otherwise, you've got sort of a 70 kilogram robot that just flopped over and you've got to carry it out like a body. You know, it's in our wheels. So, and we don't want Optimus to go haywire. So, it's a lot of work to scale, to get the design right and to scale production. And I really want to emphasize here that the production scaling challenge is very substantial.
这将是特斯拉有史以来在制造方面最难量产的产品，因为机器人上的所有部件都是全新的。生产规模扩大的难度与这些部件的新颖程度成正比。你知道吗，至少在电动车方面，车上非电力传动系统的部分已经有现成的供应链。所以，你可以去现有的供应商那里购买轮胎、后视镜、挡风玻璃以及车身零件。而对于Optimus机器人来说，根本没有这样的供应链。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This is going to be the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla because everything on the robot is new. And the difficulty of scaling the production ramp is proportionate to the newness of the parts in the robot. And, you know, at least with electric cars, the non-electric powertrain portions of the cars had an existing supply chain. So, you could go to existing suppliers for wheels and side mirrors and windshield glass and that kind of thing, body panels. And with Optimus, there is no supply chain.
因此，我们不得不建立一个完整的供应链或自行生产。我们实际上已经宣布了很多消息。我们正在Premont建立的Optimus生产线，取代了之前的Model SX生产，它看上去非常出色，令人惊叹。所以，我只是想确保每个人对这件事有正确的预期。Optimus将遵循通常的S型制造曲线，但由于机器人部件的创新性，开始阶段的X曲线会比较平缓且漫长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, we've had to build up a supply chain in its entirety or in-house the production. And we actually announced a tremendous amount. The Optimus production line that we're building out in Premont in place of what used to be the Model SX production, it looks incredible. It's quite stunning to see. So, I just want to make sure to calibrate people correctly. Optimus will follow the sort of normal S-curve of manufacturing, of a manufacturing ramp. But the initial portion of the X-curve will be quite flat and long because of the newness of the parts in the robot.
你可能在网上看过很多令人印象深刻的机器人展示，不过那些展示都是预先编程好的或者是通过远程控制的。目前还没有一种人形机器人能够真正执行各种任务。Optimus会成为第一个具备这种能力的机器人。Optimus不仅仅是一个演示模型，它在日常生活中真的很有用。Optimus的设计旨在拥有与人类相同的灵活性，甚至比人类的手还要灵活。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you've probably seen lots of impressive demonstrations of robots on the internet, but those demonstrations you're seeing are pre-programmed or remote controlled. So, there is no humanoid robot that is actually able to do generalized tasks. Optimus will be the first one that is capable of doing that. Optimus is not just a demo, it's genuinely useful in day-to-day life. So, Optimus is designed to have full human dexterity. So, a hand that has the same level of dexterity, if not higher, than a human hand.
人类的手是一个非常了不起的存在。你对它研究越深入，就越能感受到手的神奇之处。不仅仅是因为有对生手指，更因为人类手部运作的细微差别。你观察得越仔细，就能发现它们多么神奇。而Optimus将拥有这种能力，不仅具备人类的灵活性，还会超越人类。这将是非常了不起的成就。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the human hand is an incredible, incredible thing. So, the more you study the human hand, the more amazing you realize how amazing hands are. It's more than just opposable thumbs. I mean, the nuances of how human hands work are amazing. So, the closer you look, the more amazing you are. And Optimus will have that capability. You'll have human and then superhuman dexterity. So, it's really going to be quite something.
让我们来看看，TerraFab。关于TerraFab，我们很快会宣布地点，并提供更多关于我们计划的细节。不过，我们会将此留给产品发布来公布，而不是在财报电话会议中草草带过。因为我认为这是一个非常重要的公告，它值得有自己的时间在聚光灯下，而不是在财报电话会议中被匆匆提及。不过，我确实认为TerraFab将是一个令人惊叹且必不可少的项目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's see, TerraFab. With TerraFab, we expect to announce the location soon and provide more details about our plans in that regard. Which, we'll leave that to the product. So, the launch announcement rather than try to squeeze it into an earnings call. Because I think this is a very big announcement and it deserves to have its own sort of stay in the spotlight and not be sort of squeezed into an earnings call. But I do think TerraFab is going to be an amazing initiative and a necessary one.
如果没有这个，我们将会受到限制，无法扩大Optimus的生产能力。因为我们根本没有足够的AI芯片。所以，解决这个问题是至关重要的。而且，我们必须解决存储、逻辑和封装的问题，才能扩大Optimus的规模。但不管怎样，正如我所说的，我们会等到正式公告才会详细说明。我们已经为奥斯汀的研发工厂订购了设备。我觉得这个研发工厂很不错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One without which we will be constrained in our ability to scale Optimus production. Because we simply won't have enough AI chips. So, it's crucial to solve that. And we'll have to solve memory, logic, and packaging pool in order to scale Optimus. But anyway, like I said, we'll leave that to its own announcement. We've placed equipment orders for our development fab in Austin. And that development fab, I think, is pretty cool.
因为这个设施旨在进行光刻掩模的生产，然后将逻辑电路、存储器、封装和芯片测试放在同一个地方。因此，您可以实现非常快速的迭代周期，快速尝试新的芯片设计并查看其是否有效。我认为这种建筑在世界上任何地方都不存在。所以，当我们尝试一些令人兴奋、具有冒险性质的高风险高回报AI芯片时，这将非常有帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because it's intended to have lithography mask production. And then logic, memory, and packaging, and chip testing all under one roof. So, you can have a very fast iterative cycle. And try out new chip designs very quickly and see if they work. I don't think such a building exists anywhere on earth. So, this is really going to be super helpful as we try some exciting, adventurous, high-risk, high-payoff bets on AI chips.
他们主要关注的是Optimus，正如我之前所说。他们想办法让Optimus尽可能有用。我们还有一个叫做Digital Optimus的，就是用来操作电脑屏幕的。我想你可以称之为电脑使用或者类似的东西。操作电脑屏幕就像开车一样。对于汽车来说，输入的是像素或光子，输出的是控制信号。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, they focus, like I said, on primarily Optimus. Like, how do we make Optimus as useful as possible? And then we have, like, we have Digital Optimus, which is basically driving a computer screen. I guess you could call it computer use or something like that. But driving a computer screen is the same way that you drive a car. So, for the car, it's sort of pixels in or photons in and controls out.
同样的道理适用于Optimus和Digital Optimus。这是一种"光子进、控制出"的系统。因此，我们有信心可以将用于自动驾驶汽车的相同特斯拉AI技术，适用于开发一块"自动驾驶的电脑屏幕"——本质上是一台自动驾驶的电脑。这种自动驾驶电脑使用非常低成本的特斯拉AI 4电脑，就能够处理各种短期任务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The same thing is true for Optimus and Digital Optimus. It's photons in and controls out. So, we feel confident we can adapt the same Tesla AI technology that we developed for self-driving cars to have a self-driving computer screen. Self-driving computer, essentially. So, the self-driving computer where the Tesla, the very, very low-cost Tesla AI 4 computer can handle all of the sort of short-term tasks.
他们正在对电脑屏幕进行实时视频控制。这并不是截图，而是高帧率的实时视频。对于实体Optimists来说，数字Optimists显然非常重要，因为实体Optimists需要能够操作电脑。它不能面对一个触摸屏时无从下手。它必须具备通用的触摸屏和电脑使用能力。所以，这方面看起来非常有前途。这是与SpaceX合作进行的，SpaceX是Brock。因此，有一个大型模型，类似于Digital Optimists的管理者，会指示它该做些什么。然后，Digital Optimists根据一系列任务去执行这些任务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They're doing real-time video control of the screen of the computer. So, it's not like screenshots, everything. It's real-time video at high frame rate. Digital Optimus will be important, obviously, for Physical Optimus because Physical Optimus needs to be able to operate computers. It can't come up to a touchscreen and not know what to do. It's got to have a generalized touchscreen and computer use capability. So, that's looking promising. And this is in partnership with SpaceX. SpaceX is Brock. So, the big model that is kind of like the manager of Digital Optimus and kind of tells Digital Optimus what to do. Provides it with a series of tasks and then Digital Optimus goes and does those tasks.
我们还在开发一种“Megapod”设计，它结合了x86架构的特斯拉AI 4计算机。这是一种非常x86的计算机，内含特斯拉AI 4，类似于一台“数字Optimus”在一个盒子里。基本上，我们把大量的AI 4与x86组合放置在一个巨大的盒子中。这些盒子可以放置在国内外的任何地方。这使我们能够利用分布式电力生产来扩展AI计算。在世界各地有很多这样的地方，包括我们的超级充电站。我认为我们的超级充电站大约有七吉瓦的电力容量，而且还在增长。我们可以在许多这样的超级充电站放置Megapods，为AI提供分布式电力。因此，我认为这可能会带来相当大的影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're also building out a Megapod design that has Tesla AI 4 computers with x86. It's a very x86 computer with the Tesla AI 4 computer in a box. And it's kind of just Digital Optimus in a box. And so, we put just a large number of AI 4 plus x86 combos in a giant box, essentially. And these boxes can be placed anywhere in the country or outside the country. And this allows us to scale AI compute using disaggregated electricity production. So, there's lots of places all around the world, including our superchargers. I think we've got something like seven gigawatts of power at our superchargers and growing. And we can place Megapods at many of these superchargers and have distributed power for AI. So, I think that that could be quite a big deal.
总之，我们对特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人技术方面的路线图感到非常兴奋。有很多令人期待的创新即将问世，这些都很难在一次财报会上完全展示。但我们会有许多产品发布。而且，今年将是特斯拉非常出色的一年，我认为甚至可能是最好的一年。并且，我相信明年会更好。最后，我想感谢特斯拉团队的出色表现，以及所有支持我们的人，一路与我们同行。谢谢。非常感谢，Elon。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, in conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics roadmap. There's so much awesome stuff coming. It's, like I said, hard to squeeze into an earning school. But we'll have a lot of product announcements. And this is going to be a great year for Tesla. I think one of our best years ever. And then, I think next year will be even better. So, in conclusion, I want to thank the Tesla team for their excellent execution. And all of our supporters for joining us in this journey. Thank you. Great. Thanks so much, Elon.
现在由Bebop做开场发言。谢谢，Travis。第二季度延续了第一季度末的趋势，全球对车辆的需求再次上升。我们在全球范围内实现了第二季度交付量的历史新高，其中美洲、亚太地区和欧洲、中东、非洲地区的环比增长分别为60%、27%和12%。此外，Model Y在多个主要市场创下纪录，包括荷兰、澳大利亚和新西兰。特斯拉团队在创造价格合理且具备自动驾驶能力的吸引人产品方面的努力正在取得成果。我们在第二季度末的订单积压量达到了2023年以来的最高水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And now, Bebop has some opening remarks. Thanks, Travis. So, Q2 continued the trend that we saw at the end of Q1. A resurgence in demand for vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally with sequential growth across the Americas, APAC, and EMEA of 60%, 27%, and 12%, respectively. Additionally, Model Y set records in several key markets, including the Netherlands, Australia, and New Zealand. The efforts of the Tesla team to create compelling products at a reasonable price with the capability of autonomous driving are coming to fruition. We exited Q2 with our largest order backlog since 2023.
因此，我们专注于提高所有工厂的产量以满足不断增长的需求。不过，产量的提升将受到供应链的限制，这不仅包括电池，还涉及电子元件。我们之前也遇到过这种情况。 和往常一样，我们的特斯拉团队正积极与供应商达成战略合作，以消除前方的障碍。正如埃隆所提到的，车辆需求的一个关键因素是FSD（全自动驾驶）。我们的销售数据表明，消费者关注我们汽车的主要原因之一就是因为FSD。在第二季度，北美地区约有55%的交付车辆在交付时已启用FSD订阅。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We are, therefore, focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our supply chain. This includes not just batteries, but also electronic components. We've been here before. And like always, our Tesla team is working actively to unblock the obstacles ahead by securing strategic deals with suppliers. Like Elon mentioned, one of the key factors for vehicle demand has been FSD. Our sales data suggests one of the main reasons consumers are coming and looking at the car is because of FSD. In Q2, we had, in North America, about 55% of our deliveries had FSD subscription at the time of delivery enabled.
总的来说，FSD（全自动驾驶）的附加销售率继续提升，全球到目前为止已达到近150万付费客户，其中55%是一次性购买，其余45%是订阅用户。我们预计，FSD的货币化增长主要将来自订阅用户，因为我们已在大多数市场取消了购买选项。汽车利润率（不包括监管抵免）从19.2%下降到了16.3%。需要提醒的是，我们在第一季度曾经提到过，因保修费用减少和一些关税减免获得了2.3亿的好处，但这些好处在第二季度没有出现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Overall, FSD attached rates continue to improve, reaching nearly 1.5 million paid customers globally, of which 55% is upfront purchases and the remaining 45% is subscriptions. We expect that the bulk of the growth in FSD monetization will come from subscriptions, as we've removed the purchase option in most markets. Automotive margins, excluding regulatory credits, declined sequentially from 19.2% to 16.3%. As a reminder, we had highlighted in Q1 that we had a 230 million benefit from warranty true downs and some tariff relief, which did not repeat in Q2.
在去除上一季度收益的影响后，我们的汽车毛利率（不包括补贴）几乎保持不变。这表明特斯拉团队在定价和成本管理方面非常有效，我们也在继续推动需求。然而，大宗商品价格上涨和利率变化持续增加我们的成本。请注意，利率补贴成本会作为收入抵消来立即确认。因此，随着今年利率的上升，补贴成本也相应增加，这对汽车毛利率产生了负面影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Controlling for the impact of those benefits from the prior quarter, our automotive gross margins, excluding credits, would have been approximately flat. This demonstrates the effective pricing and cost management done by the Tesla team as we continue to drive demand. Commodity price increases and interest rate changes all continue to add to our costs. Note that interest rate subvention costs are recognized upfront as revenue offset. So as interest rates have risen this year, the cost of subvention has risen along with them, which had a negative impact on automotive margins.
正如我们之前提到的，能源业务本质上波动较大。部署进度受到客户时间表的影响，主要不在我们的控制范围内。在第二季度，我们部署了13.5吉瓦时的储能设施，环比增长了53%，成为能源业务的第二大季度。尽管有这样的增长，能源的毛利率却从39.5%下降到了20.4%。这种毛利率的下降是由多种因素造成的。首先，本季度进行了一次价值约2.4亿美元的保修费调整，涉及我们以往部署中某些供应商电池的问题。此外，第一季度我们曾获得超过2亿美元的关税优惠，但在本季度这些优惠未能重现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
As we have previously noted, energy business is inherently lumpy. Deployments are tied to customer timelines and largely out of our control. In Q2, we deployed 13.5 gigawatt hour of energy storage, a 53% sequential increase, and the second largest quarter for energy business. Despite this growth, energy gross margins declined from 39.5% to 20.4%. This margin decline was a result of several dynamics. First, there was a warranty true-up in the quarter of about $240 million related to certain vendor cell issues for our legacy deployments. Also, the tariff benefits we recognized in Q1 of more than $200 million did not repeat.
最后，我们之前曾表示，随着竞争加剧，工业存储的平均销售价格正在下降。从长期来看，我们认为能源业务的毛利率应在20%出头或更低一些范围内趋于稳定。这个业务的订单积压情况非常可观，我们正在全力以赴地建设，既基于现有需求，也基于我们预期的数据中心增长以及整体经济电气化所带来的未来需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And lastly, we had previously guided that ASPs for industrial storage is coming down amidst growing competition. Long-term, we believe the energy business should normalize at a gross margin rate in the mid to low 20% range. Our order backlog of this business is robust, and we are doing our best to build based on both existing demand and future demand we expect from data center growth and overall electrification of the economy.
好的，非常感谢各位今天的参与。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you so much for joining us today.
我们继续扩大特斯拉自动驾驶出租车的车队，并已扩展到美国的七个市场。预计车队的增长将在今年加速，并将扩展到新的美国市场。正如之前所指引的，运营费用逐渐增加。增加的费用主要来自大量的研发活动，包括新产品如半挂卡车、Optimus机器人、CyberCab等的生产准备成本，以及一些人工智能项目，还包括新增计算设备带来的折旧费用。此外，本季度我们还有与诉讼相关的费用。需要注意的是，我们正处于一个大型投资周期，预计运营费用——主要由研发驱动——将在2026年及以后继续增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We continue to grow the Tesla robotaxi fleet and have expanded to a total of seven markets in the US. We expect the ramp of the fleet to accelerate throughout the year, along with expansion into new US markets. As previously guided, operating expenses increased sequentially. The increase came primarily from significant research and development related activities, including pre-production ramp costs for new products like the SemiTruck, Optimus, CyberCab, and other AI initiatives, as well as depreciation for an additional compute that we brought online. Additionally, we had charges related to litigation expenses in the quarter. Note that we are in a big investment cycle and expect our operating expenses, largely driven by R&D, to continue to grow in 2026 and beyond.
净收入受到正面影响，主要因为我们在SpaceX持有的股份市值增益了10亿美元，但这被外汇损失约3亿美元和比特币损失约1亿美元所抵消。之前提到的，我们的自由现金流在本季度结束时是负数。导致负数的主要原因是资本支出（CapEx）环比翻了一倍多。我们预计到2026年下半年，这一支出还将进一步增加。我们仍然预计今年的资本支出将超过250亿美元。在未来两到三年中，随着我们扩展自动驾驶出租车队、扩大Optimus的生产能力、投资于半导体工厂、安装太阳能制造能力以及AI计算基础设施，资本支出将会增加。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Net income was positively impacted by a mark-to-market gain of $1 billion on our SpaceX holdings, which was offset by losses on FX of approximately $300 million and on Bitcoin of about $100 million. Now, as previously guided, our free cash flow ended up being negative for the quarter. Most of the reason for it going negative is because CapEx more than doubled sequentially. And we expect it to increase further in the second half of 2026. We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion. CapEx will grow for the next two or three years as we expand our robot taxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity, and AI compute infrastructure.
除了我们为汽车制造业所做的其他扩展投资外，我们还在利用现金进行这些投资的同时，把握机会确保一些债务融资，以便我们能够借贷高达300亿美元，从而加速这些投资。我们相信，这是为公司迎接新时代做好准备的正确战略，同时我们也始终以高效的资本运作方式来进行这些投资。通向丰盛的道路充满挑战，需要大胆的决策。我们的进展将是非线性的。未来将会是美好的，我们已准备好迎接这一挑战。最后，我想感谢特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和供应商在这一旅程中对我们的信任。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In addition to all the other expansions we will do for other manufacturing for automotive. In addition to using our cash for such investments, we are being opportunistic in securing certain debt facilities that will give us the capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to help accelerate such investments. We believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era, and we will always make such investments in a very capital-efficient manner. The path to amazing abundance is ever challenging and requires making bold bets. Our progress will be non-linear. The future is going to be great, and we are ready to rise to the occasion. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors, and suppliers for their confidence in us on this journey.
非常感谢你，Vaibhav。正如电话会议中大家可能注意到的，我们在开场发言中已经讨论了say.com网站上的几个问题，包括Optimus生产、TerraFab和Digital Optimus。今天和我们一起的是阿肖克，我们的AI副总裁，他将回答与Robotaxi相关的问题。阿肖克。
谢谢你，Travis。say.com网站上的许多问题都与Robotaxi的部署和扩展有关，因此我们希望能全面介绍一下我们目前的情况和未来的发展。首先，我想说明的是，Robotaxi项目运行得非常好。特别是在安全方面，该项目的安全记录无可挑剔。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thanks so much Vaibhav. As everyone on the call may have noticed, we've covered several of the say.com questions already in opening remarks, including Optimus Production, TerraFab, and Digital Optimus. Ashok is joining us today, our VP of AI, and he's going to cover questions related to Robotaxi. Ashok. Thank you, Travis. Many of the questions on say.com relate to Robotaxi deployment and scaling, so we thought we'd provide a comprehensive view of where we are now and where we are going in the future. First of all, I'd like to state that the Robotaxi program has been operating extremely well. Especially in terms of safety, the program has had an impeccable safety record.
我们已经在六个城市、两个不同的州进行了超过38万英里的无人驾驶Robotaxi测试，并且没有发生过任何重大事故。任何报告中的问题都只是当我们静止时其他行为者对我们的影响。我想再次强调，到目前为止，操作非常安全，在38万英里中没有出现重要事故。以前所谓的专家总是声称，要安全驾驶你需要激光雷达、雷达、高清地图以及所有可能的配置。而我们证明这种说法是不真实的。仅凭摄像头，也可以实现安全、舒适且经济的自动驾驶。这一记录应该是对特斯拉整体人工智能方法的重大验证。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We have driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi, now across six cities in two different states. We have had zero notable incidents. Any reports have been of other actors impacting us when we were stationary. Again, I'd like to emphasize how safe the operation has been so far. Zero notable incidents over 380,000 miles. Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need lidars, radars, HD maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely. Here we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla's entire AI approach.
其次，我想谈谈扩展的问题。我们大约一年前在奥斯汀启动了无人出租车项目，起初车上有安全监控员坐在乘客座位上。大约在去年年底，我们在奥斯汀首次实现了完全无人监督的无人出租车。自今年年初以来，我们在无人监督驾驶里程数量上实现了两位数的每周增长。我再强调一下，过去几个月中，我们的周增长率一直非常高。不仅如此，我们预计在今年余下的时间里仍会以如此大的速度继续增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Second, I'd like to discuss scaling. We started the Robotaxi program roughly a year ago in Austin. We had safety monitors in the passenger seats of the cars back then. Around the end of last year, we had the first fully unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin. Since the beginning of this year, we have grown at double-digit growth rates to the number of unsupervised miles that the fleet drives every week. I repeat, we have grown at such a high compounding rate on a week-over-week basis over the last several months. Not only that, we expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year.
另一件需要注意的事情是，我们在拓展新城市方面的努力相对较少。我们预计，进入新城市的时间将持续缩短，最终目标是做到直接在整个州运营，而不是逐个城市地发展。这样的增长之所以可能，是因为我们在特斯拉拥有世界一流的工程团队，在前沿的人工智能开发领域处于领先地位。目前正在运营的自动驾驶出租车队已经运行我们之前提到的V15完全自动驾驶软件的早期版本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The other thing to note is that for expanding to new cities, it has been relatively less effort on our front. We expect that the time to launch to a new city will continue to trend towards zero, towards an end where we operate in entire states as a whole instead of going city by city. Such growth was only possible because we have a world-class engineering team on the frontier AI development here at Tesla. The currently operating Robotaxi fleet is already running early versions of the V15 FSD software that we had referred to in the past.
对于V15版本，我们计划了大约七个主要的改进方向，并且这些改进是同时进行的。目前在Robotaxi上运行的早期V15版本已经合并了其中40%的改进，而这也是现在车队中正在使用的版本。随着我们继续完成V15的工作，汽车将会变得极其安全和高效。我们已经在内部看到了这些技术改进的所有赌注开始奏效的迹象，我们预计这些改进将带来巨大的收益，这将帮助我们在今年以及未来保持同样的增长率。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For V15, we have planned roughly about seven major improvement tracks, and they're all happening in parallel. The early V15 builds that are running on Robotaxi have already 40% of those tracks merged together, and that's what's running in the fleet right now. As we continue to complete our work on V15, we will see that the car is going to be ridiculously safe and capable. We're already seeing internal signs that all of these bets that we have made for technology improvements are all continuing to are all starting to work, and we expect that the payoff will be huge and that's what is going to help us sustain the same growth rate through the rest of this year and so on.
最后，关于CyberCab，首先，它是一款非常出色的产品。任何乘坐过的人都会立刻爱上这种体验。我们已经调整了制造目标，以大致匹配无人驾驶里程的预期增长率。用于Model Y和其他平台的V15型号同样适用于CyberCab。总的来说，Robotaxi的增长到目前为止简直是呈指数级的，同时也保持了无可挑剔的安全记录。我们的技术投资正在得到回报，帮助我们在可预见的未来保持指数级增长，而CyberCab一定会非常棒。这真是太好了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Finally, regarding the CyberCab, first of all, it's a phenomenal product. Anyone who writes in it instantly falls in love with the experience. We have aligned our manufacturing targets to roughly match the projected growth rate of the unsupervised miles. The same V15 models that power the Model Y and other platforms will also work on CyberCabs. In conclusion, Robotaxi growth so far has been literally exponential while keeping an impeccable safety record. Our technology bets are paying off, helping us sustain the exponential growth for the foreseeable future, and the CyberCab is going to be awesome. That's great.
非常感谢你，Ashok。还有一个关于Optimus训练的数据收集问题未解答，你能顺便说一下这个吗？当然可以。关于Optimus，特别是第三代，Optimus被设计成不仅要模仿人类的外观，还要具备人类的功能和灵活性。这种设计的主要原因之一是，通过具备人类的形态和功能，我们可以从人类身上学习，了解如何执行各种任务。这使我们能够从整个世界收集数据来训练Optimus。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thanks so much, Ashok. And there was one remaining question on data collection for Optimus training. Would you mind covering that as well? Yep, definitely. Regarding Optimus, especially Gen 3, Optimus has been designed to not just match the appearance of human beings but also the functionality and dexterity of humans. One of the main reasons for this approach is that having the human form factor and function allows us to learn from humans on how to perform a wide variety of tasks. This opens up the entire world to provide data for training Optimus.
就像FSD一样，我们可以从工厂里所有的员工那里获取大量数据，相当于有一个庞大的人类“车队”在为我们提供信息。Optimus可以通过观察他们在工厂中完成任务，学到不少东西。我们还有一个专门的数据收集团队，他们可以提供数量较少但质量非常高的演示数据，用于模型的后续训练。除此之外，我们还可以利用互联网上大量展示人们在工业和家庭环境中完成各种任务的数据进行训练。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Just like FSD, we have access to a broad fleet of humans giving us data from all of the workers at our factory. Optimus can learn quite a bit from observing them perform their tasks at the factories. We also have a dedicated data collection team who can provide a relatively small amount, but of very high quality demonstrations to do the post-training of these models. This is all on top of any training we can do off of the entire internet of data that shows demonstrations of people doing various tasks, both in industrial settings and home settings.
第二个飞轮效应是，当我们有大量Optimus机器人在我们称为“Optimus学院”的地方练习他们的任务时。这些机器人在实践任务时获得的数据将是无价的，能够帮助我们解决机器人和人类之间可能存在的任何细微差距。这也是强化学习循环开始的阶段，机器人最初会尝试执行一些任务，有时会失败，但通过从这些任务的成败中学习，最终掌握这些任务，甚至可能达到超越人类的水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The second flywheel is when we have a large number of Optimus robots practicing their tasks in what we call the Optimus Academy. The data from the bots experiencing the tasks themselves will be invaluable and help us close any minor form factor gaps that may exist between the bot and the humans. This is also when the reinforcement learning loop kicks in, where the bot initially attempts some tasks, fails sometimes, learns from both the successes and failures of those tasks, and eventually learns to master those tasks at perhaps a superhuman level.
我们的Optimus人工智能战略与自动驾驶（FSD）的战略是一致的。这是一种端到端的策略，从接收图像到输出控制，完全一致。就像自动驾驶一样，我们期望它在广泛的场合下都能发挥作用。在自动驾驶中，你知道，你可以坐进车里，输入一个地址，然后按下开始键，它就会处理整个从起点到终点的驾驶过程。同样的，对Optimus来说也是如此。你只需告诉它做任何事情，然后它就会独自完成整个任务，而你无需在过程中做任何事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Our AI strategy for Optimus is aligned the same. It's the same end-to-end strategy that drives FSD, pixels in, controls out, and just like FSD, we expect it to work broadly. In FSD, you know, you can get in the car, type in an address, and then hit start, and it handles all of driving from park to park, and the same thing is going to be true for Optimus as well. You're going to just ask it to do anything, and then you just perform the entire task on its own without you having to do anything along the way.
这就是开发FSD的同一团队，您知道的，V12、V13、V14，现在还有V15软件都可以在Optimus上运行。因此，我非常有信心Optimus将是一款极其强大的机器人。非常感谢你，Ashok。这就回答了来自say.com的问题，现在我们将开始分析师提问环节。第一个问题来自RBC的汤姆。汤姆，准备好后可以取消静音开始提问。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's the same team that produced the FSD, you know, the V12, 13, 14, and now V15 software that now works on Optimus as well. Hence, I'm very confident that Optimus will have been an extremely capable robot. Great. Thank you so much, Ashok. So that covers the say.com questions, and now we will move over to analyst questions. The first question comes from Tom from RBC. Tom, please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready.
汤姆，你还处于静音状态，请取消静音，然后提问。好，你能听到我吗？能听到。太好了。非常感谢您接我的问题。关于Optimus项目，埃隆，你曾提到现在几乎没有现成的供应链，所以大部分都需要内部解决。我很好奇，在这个过程中，你有没有看到有供应商愿意和你一起投资，在美国建立本土化的生产，以帮助你更快地扩大规模？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Tom, you're still on mute, so please unmute yourself and go ahead and ask your question. Okay, can you hear me? Yes, we can. Awesome. Thanks so much for taking the question. So maybe just to start out on Optimus. Elon, you mentioned that, you know, there's really no supply chain today for Optimus. You've had to mostly insource a lot of that yourself. I'm just curious, as you've gone through this exercise, are you seeing any suppliers willing to, you know, invest alongside you to set up domestic manufacturing to potentially help you scale more quickly in the US?
在这种情况下，显然你希望在某种程度上掌控自己的命运，并尽可能快速推进，但从投资周期的角度来看，与一些合作伙伴一起可能会更有效地利用资本。所以我很好奇你是怎么考虑的，以及你与潜在的外部供应商进行了一些怎样的对话。Elon，你可能没开麦克风，我们听不见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, asking that in the context of, obviously, you know, you want to control your own destiny to some extent and ramp as quickly as possible, but from an investment cycle standpoint, you know, potentially more capital efficient to have some partners, you know, help you along the way. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about that and some of the dialogue you've had with potentially some external suppliers. Elon, you may be on mute right now. We can't hear you.
所以，我们的供应一直很充足。他们已经并正在为支持Optimus和RoboTaxi等项目进行巨额投资。特别是，三星和台积电正在建造工厂，台积电在亚利桑那州，而三星在德克萨斯州，并投入数百亿美元以提供适合Optimus和RoboTaxi的AI计算支持。松下也投入了数十亿美元来增加电池的生产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So yeah, our supplies have been great. And they've made, they have made and are making tremendous investments in support of Optimus and RoboTaxi and whatnot. You know, Samsung and TSMC, in particular, are building fabs, some TSMC and Arizona and Samsung in Texas, and putting in tens of billions of dollars for suitable AI compute for Optimus and RoboTaxi. Panasonic has also invested many billions in increasing battery cell production.
好的，我现在感觉有点不太舒服，有一些小病，所以声音有些异常。我今天有些不太舒服。但是我们的合作伙伴一直很出色。我想感谢他们的支持、投入和辛勤工作。非常感谢，非常感谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay, I'm a little, I'm a little, I'm a little under the weather here. I'm a bit ill. So I sound a little off. I'm kind of struggling with some, I'm a little bit ill today. So yeah, but our partners have been great. And I'd like to thank them for their support and their investment and their hard work. Great. Thanks, thanks for that.
也许作为一个跟进。哦，对不起，Andrew，我们将让Karn短暂插话，提供更多信息。是的，只是为了补充Elon的观点，三星的工厂将大量投入到未来的项目中。这是一个巨大的投资，数十亿美元。我们看到同等规模的投资正在用于存储器以及新的特定金属注射成型部件、柔性印刷电路和各种非线性技术，这些都更加适用于机器人，而不是我们传统车辆供应链中的应用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And maybe just as a follow-up. Oh, sorry, Andrew, we're going to have Karn hop in here for additional color briefly. Yeah, just to add to Elon's point that, you know, the Samsung fab, that's going to be pretty significantly dedicated to future projects. That's a massive investment, multi-billion dollar. We're having, we're seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of non-linear technologies that are, you know, more based for the robot as opposed to the traditional vehicle supply chain we've had.
在某些情况下，如果我们找不到合适的合作伙伴，我们也会毫不犹豫地选择在内部完成这项工作。我们拥有一个非常有能力的制造工程团队和设计团队，帮助我们扩展这些业务。此外，我还要感谢美光公司为我们提供了存储器的分配。美光将在存储器分配方面做出一些非常艰难的决定，而我们非常感激他们在接下来的几年里为特斯拉腾出空间，给予我们相当可观的分配，并在当前存储器价格高昂的情况下提供了合理的条件。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And in certain cases where we don't find a great partner, we've never hesitated from insourcing it. And we have a very capable manufacturing engineering team and a design team that helps us scale those things. Yeah. And actually, I'd also like to thank Micron for giving us a memory allocation. They're going to make some very tough decisions on memory allocation. And we really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days.
好的。我们非常感谢这些信息。关于无人驾驶出租车，我有个后续问题。你们在之前的发言中提供了很多有用的资讯。不过，似乎在州层面有一些关于传感器要求的法规正在演变。所以我想知道，在你们考虑自己的推广计划时，希望或者需要从监管机构那里看到什么，以确保法规合理不过度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. We really appreciate that color. And maybe just my follow-up on RoboTaxis. You guys gave a lot of great, you know, information in your prepared remarks. But, you know, there seems to be some evolving regulations at the state level, potentially around sensor requirements. So I'm just curious, as you think about your own rollout, what do you want to see or what do you need to see from regulators to make sure that, you know, obviously some regulation might be good, but you don't want it to be over-regulated.
那么你希望看到什么？你希望看到哪些东西来确保这件事以正确的方式完成？我们有Lars在电话线上。Lars，如果可以的话，麻烦你来回答这个问题。好的，Travis。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what are you expecting to see? What do you want to see to make sure that this is, you know, done in a proper way? And we've got Lars on the line. Lars, if you wouldn't mind covering this one, if you can. Yeah, sure, Travis.
我的意思是，我觉得你知道，我们一直在讨论特别是美国的法规。我们在这方面已经取得了很多进展。联邦政府在FMVSS条例上的良好举措，在推动纯自动驾驶汽车的认可和采用方面，表现积极。我非常感谢国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的支持。但在州与州之间的层面上，新泽西州的一些情况显然有些令人沮丧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, I think, you know, we talk about regulation, particularly in the U.S. We've made a lot of headway. And, you know, just good initiatives from the federal government in terms of FMVSS rules, moving towards, you know, acceptance and adoption of purely built AVs. And I really appreciate the support from NHTSA on that. When it comes to like a state-to-state level, obviously the stuff in New Jersey, you know, is a little bit disheartening.
我认为说到底，就像阿肖克在他开场白中提到的那样，我们真正关注的是车辆的性能。最终，正是这一点会促使监管机构和公众接受它。我认为，最好的监管是那些为公司和创新者提供目标或任务，并允许我们自己找到解决方案的那种。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think ultimately, as Ashok said in his opening remarks, we really focus on the performance of the vehicle. And ultimately that's what's going to drive regulators and the public to adopt it. You know, I think, you know, the best regulations are those that provide companies and innovators with a goal or a task and allow us to figure out the solution.
当我们看到在问题尚未明确之前就提出解决方案的法规时，我们确实不太欣赏这种做法。但是，正如特斯拉一贯以来所做的那样，我们会让我们的表现来证明自身的实力。我认为阿肖克已经很清楚地说明了这一点。这将成为我们未来扩展的基础。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when we see regulations that provide a solution before identifying a problem, we really don't, you know, appreciate those. But as Tesla always has and will continue to do, we'll let our performance speak for itself. And I think Ashok played that out really clearly. And that will be the foundation of our expansion moving forward.
好的。感谢你的提问，非常感谢。我们将再次尝试与RBC的汤姆连线。汤姆，你能解除静音并尝试说话吗？很遗憾，汤姆，我们看到你已经解除静音，但还是听不到你的声音。所以我们只好把你放回到队列中。接下来是来自美国银行的亚历克斯。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. Thanks for the questions. Thanks so much. We're going to try Tom again from RBC. Tom, can you unmute and try to speak, please? Unfortunately, Tom, we see you unmuted, but we're not hearing you. So we're going to have to send you back into the queue. Next is Alex from Bank of America.
Alex，请尽快取消静音。嘿，谢谢你。感谢大家提出的问题。我有几个关于自动驾驶出租车的后续问题。实际上，从现在开始，投资者应该关注哪些里程碑，才会促使你们加速车队扩张或市场投放？是进一步的安全验证，比如每事故行驶里程，还是其他方面的指标呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Alex, as soon as you can, please unmute yourself. Hey, thanks. Thanks for the questions here. Um, just a few follow ups on on Robo taxi. Actually, I guess what milestone should investors be watching from here that would cause you to accelerate your fleet scaling or market deployments? You know, is it the further safety validation like a miles driven per incident or or something else?
那么，请问您是否考虑过与第三方合作伙伴（比如网约车服务提供商）进行合作，以提高使用率，还是说目前的计划是让Robo出租车完全垂直整合？谢谢。 是的，我们计划让Robo出租车与我们其他业务一样实现垂直整合。 我认为我们在Robo出租车的需求方面不会有任何挑战。这种模式的经济效益将非常吸引人，我相信我们会有很多需求远超我们服务能力的情况。所以在这种情况下，显然可以完全垂直整合。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, um, would you ever consider third party distribution partnerships such as with rideshare providers, uh, to increase utilization or is the plan for now to keep Robo taxi fully vertically integrated? Thanks. Yeah, we expect to be vertically integrated with Robo taxi as we are in the rest of our business. Um, so I, I don't think we're going to have any demand challenges with Robo taxi. So this, this is, um, um, the economics will be so compelling that I think we will really have a lot more, um, desire to use the service than, than, you know, like, I think demand will add our ability to service demand. Um, and, and so obviously you just, there's no, no, you can just go vertical in that situation.
所以，这真的是关于我们所谓的可靠性等级的“九之进行曲”。你需要多少个“九”来扩展规模？理想情况下，你希望达到99.99999999%的可靠性。这就是那个称为可靠性“九之进行曲”的东西。我认为这也是我们在机器人出租车领域增长的唯一限制因素。好的，谢谢埃隆。下一个问题来自富国银行的科林。科林，准备好后请自己取消静音。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it's really just about going through and what we call the, the March of nines of reliability where you need, like, like how many nines of reliability do you need to scale? You know, ideally you want 99.99999999, you know, percent reliable. Um, and, um, and so that's, that's the, it's just the March of nines of reliability disease. I think the only thing really constraining our growth in Robo taxi. Great. Uh, thanks Elon. Uh, the next question is going to come from Colin at Wells Fargo. Uh, Colin, please, uh, meet yourself when you're ready.
哦，太好了。呃，谢谢你接听我的问题。嗯，现在有很多关于SpaceX和特斯拉可能合并的讨论。其实今天就有很多合作。埃隆，你认为合并这两家公司最终会有协同效应吗？呃，从你的角度来看，长期来看这样做有意义吗？
嗯，我的意思是，你可以从SpaceX和特斯拉在很多方面的合作中看出这一点，因为他们的合作越来越多，尤其是与TerraFab有关的项目，这将是一个非常庞大的项目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Oh, great. Uh, thanks for taking my questions. Um, there's been a lot of chatter about SpaceX and Tesla combining in some way. I'm in a lot of collaboration already today. I mean, Elon, do you see synergies eventually from combining the companies? Uh, and does that make sense for me from your perspective over time? Well, I mean, as you can tell from all the, the many collaborations on, on so many fronts with, with SpaceX and, and, uh, cause there's a lot, there's, there's more and more overlap. Um, especially with TerraFab, that's, that's really going to be, you know, a gigantic project.
嗯，所以，显然我们不能在一个新学校讨论公司合并之类的事情，这种事必须按照适当的流程来进行。接下来，我会把发言权交给我们的总法律顾问布兰登。是的，谢谢你，埃隆。确实如此，我们一直从与SpaceX的合作中获益匪浅，他们是很好的合作伙伴，我们之间有许多互惠互利的交易。今年早些时候，我们通过一次投资和框架协议进一步加深了这种关系。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so, but obviously we, you know, we can't talk about, you know, combining companies and that kind of thing on, on a new school. It's, it's gotta be done with the appropriate process. And with that, I'll, I'll turn it over to Brandon, our general counsel. Yeah, no, thanks Elon. And that's exactly right. We continue to benefit from our relationship with SpaceX and we've had, they've been a great partner and we have numerous beneficial transactions with them. And earlier this year, we deepened our relationship through an investment and a framework agreement.
这将使我们能够继续与他们合作开展Elon提到的项目，比如TerraFab和数字选择权。此外，还有很多其他项目。显然，您会看到Grok在汽车中，并且Grok有助于推动数字优化。Starlink也将被整合到Cybercap中，Sonic也将被整合到我们所有的车辆中。至少在Starlink活跃的市场中，因为在无人驾驶出租车的场景下，您需要无处不在的覆盖。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this will allow us to continue to work with them on projects that Elon mentioned, like TerraFab and digital opt-ins. Yeah. And there's, there's many other things too. Obviously, you've got, you've got Grok in the car, um, and, um, so, and, and Grok helping, yeah, drive digital optimists. Um, you've also got Starlink being integrated into, um, the, uh, Cybercap and, and Sonic will be integrated into all of our vehicles. And at least for markets that, uh, Starlink is active, um, because for a robo taxi situation, um, you need to have, uh, you know, coverage, uh, everywhere.
即使是在硅谷这样的地方，也有很多很多地方，手机信号非常差，甚至有时根本没有信号，这实在让人惊讶。但我知道，当我尝试开始工作的前10到15分钟时，由于信号太差，我根本无法打电话。所以我们不能让无人驾驶出租车陷入这些类似于“手机信号百慕大三角”的地方。因此，Starlink提供的随处连接能力就显得非常重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And there are many, many, many, many places, even in Silicon Valley where the cellular coverage is, is a terrible or sometimes non-existent, which is surprising for Silicon Valley. But, um, but I know when I want to try to work those first 10, 15 minutes, I, I can't actually do any calls because the cellular connectivity is so bad. So we can't have, uh, robo taxis, um, getting stuck in these like Bermuda triangles of lack of cellular connectivity. Um, so, so Starlink with its ability to do connectivity anywhere is actually quite important.
嗯，所以我们不会遇到“行动中失踪”的机器出租车。显然，如果车里有乘客，他们会想做一些活动，或者观看娱乐节目。借助Starlink，你可以在车里观看4K高清的实时体育赛事，而且每GB数据的费用非常低，这在现有的蜂窝网络下是难以实现的。在许多其他情况下也是如此。就像Ashok提到的关于网络轿车的体验一样，当你无需专注于驾驶时，你可以在车里充分利用时间，不论是进行电话会议、看电影，还是做其他事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so we don't have, you know, robo taxis missing in action. Um, and then obviously if, if, if people are sitting in the car, they're going to want to do hyperactivity stuff or, or what entertainment, and with Starlink, you can watch, you know, four, four K live sports, um, in the car and with, with very low cost per gigabyte of data as that's, that's really not feasible by the cellular system. And there's many, there's many other situations. Yeah. I mean, I would say, think of it like, uh, Ashok was mentioning about cyber cap, right? That the experience is great. In a world when you don't have to focus on driving, you have, you have all the play, all the time in the car to do, whether it's a conference call, watch a movie or anything.
这就是为什么，如果你看网络帽的设计，它有一个大屏幕。而且你知道，我们已经在奥斯汀的工厂开始进行网络帽的测试。当你经历这个过程时，我的意思是，很快客户也能在不久的将来体验到。然后你就会明白为什么连接性变得如此重要。很棒。那么，科林，你有追问吗？是的，对于无人驾驶出租车，我注意到你们在不断增加新的城市，但根据媒体报道，车辆数量似乎还是几十辆，而不是上百辆。为什么不在奥斯汀或一两个城市扩大规模，然后再增加新的城市呢？要在大城市中提高车辆数量，你需要什么？有哪些障碍阻碍了增加地面车辆的步伐？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's why, if you look at the cyber cap design, it has a big screen. And, you know, we've started doing cyber cap rights in, uh, our factory in Austin. And when you go through that experience, you, I mean, soon customers would be able to do it in not too distant future. And then you'll understand why that connectivity becomes so important. Great. And then Colin, did you follow up? Yeah. Just, uh, if I follow up on, on robo taxi, you know, if I look at the launches, it's been, you've been adding cities, but the, the number of units is still, you know, it looks like based on media reports sort of in the dozens, as opposed to hundreds, you know, why not just sort of scale up Austin or one or two cities before adding cities and sort of, what do you need to sort of get that, you know, higher volume numbers in, in a major city? What, what sort is the roadblock to sort of adding more vehicles on the ground?
我们之所以选择在不同城市扩展，而不是只专注于一个城市，是因为我们希望确保我们的技术系统是非常通用的。我们希望向自己和他人证明，我们的系统可以在许多不同的城市中顺利运行，而且每个城市所需的额外投入并不多。从内部看来，我们确实看到了这样的效果。正如埃隆之前提到的，我们的增长速度真的像指数增长一样，只是目前正处于指数增长的早期阶段，因此可能不太容易被其他人理解。
关于行驶里程与车辆的关系，由于无人驾驶出租车队的车辆几乎是全天候运作的，而不像人类司机每天可能就只使用几个小时，因此它们的行驶里程更长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, the reason we have been expanding across different cities, instead of just doubling down on a single city is that we want to make sure that our stack is a very general one. It is a general one. We just want to like, you know, both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is, uh, working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city. Uh, and that's what we see internally. Uh, and then as Elon mentioned earlier, the growth rate has been, uh, literally exponential, just it's an early part of the exponential. That's why it's hard for others to comprehend. In terms of like miles versus the vehicles, since these, uh, vehicles operating the robot taxi fleet, drive basically, uh, continuously, as opposed to human drivers who, who use vehicles for maybe a couple hours a day or something like that.
这些车辆几乎是连续运行的，这意味着即使只有几辆车，也能跑出很多里程。这就是为什么我们跟踪无人监管的行驶里程或车辆数量之类的数据。我们希望能够高效地运营车队。因此，为了提高效率所做的所有工作都让我们能从车队中的每辆车得到更多里程。是的，再补充一点，请考虑一下，我们正在努力扩大这项运作，同时确保解决任何可能存在的问题，不仅是在软件方面，还有运营方面的问题也在积极解决。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
These vehicles are in mostly continuous operation, which means that even for a few vehicles, you can get a lot of miles out of them. And that's why we are tracking the amount of unsupervised miles or just the number of vehicles or something like that. And we want to be operating in a very efficient fleet. So all of the work that goes into, uh, the efficiency makes it even more so that we get a lot of miles per vehicle, uh, available in the fleet. Yeah. And just to add further to this, I'm like, what think of it, we're trying to scale this and we're trying to make sure that there are different kinks, which would be there. And there are things not just on the software front on the operation front, which we're also trying to tackle.
这就是为什么我们希望扩大影响范围，以便在大规模部署之前，能够在一个较小的车队中以可控的方式解决这些问题。值得注意的是，因为Cybercab是一款新车型，我们需要收集专属于Cybercab的驾驶数据，这样才能在路上投放大量车辆。这和我们对Model 3、Model Y以及其他已有数百万辆车上路的车型的策略不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's why we're trying to have a broader footprint to try and make sure before we go really high in terms of deployment, that we are able to sort these things out in a smaller fleet in a controlled manner. Yeah. Yeah. One of the things for cybercab should be noted is because it is a new vehicle chassis, um, we need, we need to accumulate, um, uh, driving data that is specific to the cybercab before we can put a lot of them on the road. Uh, so I'd like to say model three, model Y and our other vehicles where we've got a lot of, a lot of vehicles on the road, millions of vehicles on the road.
嗯，我们，我们，我们还没有为网络出租车提供这个功能。因此，我们实际上必须积累，嗯，那些安装了方向盘和刹车的网络出租车的里程，你知道，比如加速和刹车装置之类的东西，以便校准网络出租车的底盘。所以，当我们对这些有信心时，网络出租车的数量和覆盖的城市数量将会大幅增加。好的，下一个问题。哦，是的，继续吧，拉尔斯。我想在这里补充一下，就是另外一个原因，我想指出的是，你知道，交通运输方面，总拥有成本和交通法规在不同的城市和州是不一样的，并没有一个联邦的框架来处理这个问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, we, we, we don't have that for cybercab. So we actually have to accumulate, um, miles with, uh, cybercab that are retrofitted with, um, steering wheels and, and brakes, you know, acceleration braking battles, that kind of thing, um, to calibrate to the, the, the, the cybercab chassis. So, so you'll see, uh, as, as, as we are confident about that, uh, the number of cybercabs, uh, and cities will increase dramatically. Great. Our next question. Oh, yeah, go ahead, Lars. I can just add like one thought here. The, the other reason I just want to like point out is, you know, transportation, like TCO, transportation, regulatory, uh, situations are different city by city, state by state is not a federal, you know, framework to do that.
我们选择城市逐个扩展，是为了确保我们能一个一个地满足所有要求。这样我们就可以满足每个城市的需求，尽量在各地都做到。为了达到这些要求，我们必须扩展并培训团队，并会继续这样做。关于 Ashok 和 Vyvald 的建议，我们会继续提高技能。谢谢 Lars。下一个问题来自 Lightshed 的 Walt。Walt，请取消静音。谢谢，这是对 Lars 评论的一个快速跟进。国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）局长 Jonathan Morrison 刚刚在 CNBC 上表示，他已经在尝试取消油门，我忘记他确切的说法，但感觉他也想取消方向盘。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so like, the reason we're expanding city by city is to make sure that we're meeting all of those one at a time. And we're satisfying, you know, all of the requests of each individual city and, and, you know, and everywhere we can. And so we have to expand, you know, teach that each to meet those requirements. And we'll continue to do so. And, and, and, and to all of what Ashok and Vyvald and Ashok said, we'll, we'll follow with the skilling. Thanks, Lars. The next question is from Walt, uh, from Lightshed. Uh, Walt, please unmute yourself. Thanks. It's just a quick follow-up for that Lars comment. I mean, the NHTSA administrator, Jonathan Morrison was just on CNBC, you know, he already, you know, he's trying to get rid of the pedal and said, I forget his exact term, but it seemed like he wanted to get rid of the steering wheel.
这似乎是一个限制因素。但在联邦层面上还有其他需要的东西来真正解锁你发展的潜力吗？简单的回答是，不需要。我们与国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）有着良好的关系，尤其是与Morrison局长。他们正在顺应公众的期望，并预见未来的发展，努力走在前面，确保采取正确的措施。在过去几年中，我们一直与他们坦诚沟通我们的计划和正在做的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It seemed like that would be a gating factor. But is there other things that you need at the federal level to really kind of unlock, um, your ability to, to ramp cyber cab? Um, and the short answer is no. I mean, I think we have a great relationship with NHTSA and, you know, director, administrative Morrison, especially, uh, and, you know, I think they're just following through with, with what, um, the public wants and the world knows is coming and they're trying to stay ahead of it and make sure that, you know, they're, they're doing the right things in place. So, um, you know, we've been open and honest with, with them for the last couple of years about what our plans were and what we're doing.
好的，嗯，是的，我不想说我们完全步调一致，但是，我觉得我们确实在这方面有合作伙伴关系，我们正在一起努力。明白了。那么，还有一个关于路线图的问题吧。Starlink显然已经整合在 Cyber Cab 里了，你们刚才也谈到了用于看电影的连接性，但反过来呢？Cyber Cab 能否成为 Starlink 移动版的远程热点呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, um, yeah, I don't want to say we're in lockstep, but, but, uh, you know, I feel like we have a partner there and we're working together on it. Got it. And then just, you know, there's kind of a roadmap question, I guess. Um, Starlink obviously is integrated in cyber cab and, and you guys just talked about the connectivity for watching movies, but what about the flip side of that? Can these, can the cyber cabs become remote hotspots for Starlink mobile?
然后，对于半挂车的路线图问题，您预期什么时候会关注其自动驾驶功能？因为在当前的国家形势下，自动驾驶卡车市场看起来相当可观，需求也很大。是的，完全正确。正如你提到的，现在卡车司机严重短缺，没有足够的人愿意开卡车，而卡车对于全美的运输至关重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then similarly roadmap question on the semi, you know, when you anticipate, um, looking at autonomy for the semi, cause that seemed like a pretty sizable market as well in terms of autonomous trucking and the need for it, given what's going on in our country right now. Yeah, absolutely. There, as you, um, alluded to, there is a, a really serious shortage of truckers. Um, so, uh, there just aren't enough people who around who, who want to drive trucks, um, which are crucial for transport throughout America.
嗯，所以自动驾驶卡车在解决卡车司机短缺问题上会非常重要。此外，它还有助于提高安全性，并让卡车司机的工作更加轻松。拥有一辆自动驾驶卡车，我认为，将显著提高卡车司机的安全性和舒适性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so, so an autonomous semi is actually going to be very important to address the shortage of truck drivers. Um, and, and also will be great for, um, improving safety and, uh, and, uh, you know, making it easier on truck drivers to have a self-driving semi is, is going to, yeah, I think, dramatically improve safety and comfort for truck drivers that, um, you know, yeah, use this as a semi.
嗯，那个，你知道，由于特斯拉半挂车的总单位数目前仍然很少，并且即使到今年年底，它在我们总车辆中的比例也会很小。所以，我们把努力重点放在我们高销量的车型上是有道理的，比如Model 3和Model Y。我们正在解决这些车型的自动驾驶问题，我们的目标是最终实现这些车辆的全面自动驾驶，以及专注于网络出租车。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, the, you know, the, since the, the units, the total number of units of the Tesla semi is still low and, and, and will continue to be a very small percentage, even by the end of this year of our total vehicle fleet. Um, it makes sense for us to focus on our efforts, our self-driving efforts on our high volume, uh, vehicles. So model three and Y, um, and, and solving self-driving for, and, and really getting to, you know, the point where it's a generalized unto advised self-driving for, uh, for, for, for those vehicles, um, and cyber cab.
我们预计将在今年年底或明年初实现特斯拉半挂卡车的自动驾驶功能。不过，我们不希望这件事分散我们在Model 3、Model Y和Cybertruck自动驾驶安全性方面的注意力。因此，在接下来的六个月左右，半挂卡车的自动驾驶将处于次要地位。但我们确信，明年一定会实现自动驾驶功能，并为特斯拉半挂卡车的大规模生产做好准备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, so we expect to, um, do get, get self-driving working on the set, the Tesla semi, um, probably around the end of this year or early next year. Um, and, um, but we, I just don't want it to be, uh, a distraction, um, on the, you know, on the march of nines of, of, um, self-driving, of, of safety for self-driving on three Y and cyber cab. That's, uh, so that it's, uh, taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so for, for time this time, but it will be, um, you know, it will definitely be a bit working next year and, um, in, in time for the scale up to high production of Tesla semi.
嗯，对于通信方面。我觉得这里有个有趣的角度，你可以把特斯拉汽车里的启动终端用作类似于手机信号塔的东西，或者说是用于提供地面中继的连接塔，基本上是为手机和任何想要Wi-Fi的人提供连接。但这其实是个不同的话题，不过显然我们也可以用固定的启动终端来实现这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, for, for communications. Yeah. I think, I think there's an interesting angle there where, um, you, you could use the, uh, starting terminals that are in the Tesla cars as, um, like sort of cell towers, I suppose, or connectivity towers basically for, uh, providing relays on the ground to, um, to, to cell phones and to, um, anyone who, who would like Wi-Fi basically, um, but yeah, I mean, this is a different subject, but obviously we could do that with the stationary starting terminals too.
好的。嗯，我们接下来的问题来自Truist的Will。Will，请取消静音。太好了，非常感谢您回答我的问题。嗯，Elon，您之前稍微提及了一下与Optimus相关的供应链，强调了这将会有多困难，但我们非常感兴趣想了解一下，您自己生产这种半导体的意愿有多大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. Um, our next question is going to come from Will at Truist. Uh, Will, please unmute yourself. Great. Thanks so much for taking my question. Um, Elon, you teased us a little bit about, um, sort of the supply chain relative to Optimus, highlighting how difficult it's going to be, but we'd be really interested to understand what your propensity is, uh, to, um, manufacture, uh, semis for this yourself.
当我们考虑微处理器、微控制器、执行器以及其他将要使用的半导体时，我意识到市面上有很多现成的可供选择。你可以选择在第三方工厂设计和生产其中的一些组件，你也可以选择自行设计和制造。这对你的组件采购策略有什么影响，我们应该怎么看待你在这些不同方式中进行选择的倾向呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When we think about microprocessors, microcontrollers, actuators, and other, uh, semiconductors that are going to be used, it, it occurs to me that, uh, you have many that are commercially available. You have an option to design some of them, uh, made at, uh, third party fabs. You also have the option potentially to design and make them yourself. What, what should we think about your propensity to, uh, source these components in these different manners?
你是在说，呃，制造像微控制器和烟雾这样的东西，就像车里那些用于操作转向系统和制动系统的各种计算机。不，我说的不是车，而是关于Optimus。是的，Optimus有很多非常专业的电力电子设备和各种电路板。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're talking about, like, um, making like microcontrollers and smoke, like the various computers that are in the car that operate, um, you know, like the steering system and the braking system. No, I, I'm, I'm talking about for Optimus, not for, um, not for the car. Yeah. Um, Optimus has a lot of, um, really specialized power electronics and, and, uh, sort of boards.
嗯，这都是特斯拉的设计，设计相关的东西。但是，这些东西是由供应商制造的。至于Optimus 4，它将在波士顿建造，而且它的供应系统将会更加垂直整合。我们计划让Optimus 4的产量比Optimus 3多一个数量级。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, it's all Tesla design, um, design stuff. Um, but, but it is fabricated by suppliers. Um, for Optimus, uh, four, um, which will be built in, um, Boston, um, that, that will be a much more vertically integrated, uh, supply system for Optimus four. Um, and that, and that would, you know, we'd aim to have an order of magnitude more production of Optimus four than Optimus three.
大致来说，我们的目标是每年生产一千万台，而不是每年只有一百万台Optimus三型机器人。不过要注意，扩大生产规模是极其困难的。此外，Optimus四型将会实现更高程度的垂直整合，可能会在内部完成很多电路板相关的工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So sort of aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million units a year of Optimus three. Um, um, um, but, you know, with all the caveats there, which is insanely difficult to scale production. Um, so, um, and, and, yeah, Optimus, Optimus four will be much more vertically integrated. So probably, uh, doing a lot of the sort of, uh, PCV work in, in-house for that.
作为跟进，嗯，首先，也许你可以谈谈Optimus四号什么时候应该开始生产。但我真正想问的是，嗯，计划是将硬件三升级到硬件四，以便能够处理FSD的版本15和未来版本。这一计划仍然是对汽车进行硬件升级吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
As a follow-up, um, well, first, maybe you could talk about the timing as to when that, when Optimus four should be, um, should, let's say, start production. But the actual thought I wanted to ask was, uh, uh, the plan to upgrade hardware three to hardware four in order to, uh, be able to, uh, process, um, uh, I suppose it's, uh, version 15 of the, and future versions of FSD. Is that still the plan to do hardware upgrades on the cars?
我认为将所有配备硬件较少的汽车进行升级是有意义的，尤其是那些基本上装有摄像头的汽车。否则可能需要进行太多改动。而对于那些已经安装好摄像头的汽车，在某个时候对它们进行升级将是经济上合理的选择。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think it's going to make sense for, for, to upgrade, um, all cars with that are, um, have less than hardware for almost all, any cars that have cameras basically, because otherwise it would be probably too many, too many modifications, but anything that's got sort of, um, that that's, that's set up for cameras, uh, it'll be financially sensible at some point to upgrade them.
我认为我们想要升级它们到下一代的AI，比如新一代的AI板。要么是，还没有升级的AI，大约是中等的改进，这可能会在明年年中投入生产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, but I think we'd want to upgrade them to the next generation of, um, you know, like next generation AI, AI board. So it would be either, um, like we haven't, we haven't upgraded AI for, uh, uh, that's sort of a medium, sort of moderate improvement over AI for probably reaches production around the middle of next year.
此外，还有 AI 五，希望能在明年年中达到量产。AI 五最初将用于 Optimus，并且目前进展非常顺利。特斯拉的芯片团队表现出色，在 AI 五的研发上取得了非常快速的进展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then there's also AI five, which hopefully is in volume production, um, around the middle of next year. Um, AI five will initially go into Optimus, um, and, uh, actually making very good progress. So the Tesla chip team is really doing, doing great work and making incredibly fast progress on AI five.
我对特斯拉AI六代芯片的设计感到非常兴奋。我认为这将成为全球最优秀的边缘计算芯片。如果有人能设计出比这更好的芯片，我真想见见他们，和他们握手，因为AI六代芯片实在是太出色了。我认为我们已经在芯片方面做得非常好，进展顺利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, and we're, I'm very excited about the design of the Tesla AI six chip. I think it's, I think it's going to be the best edge computing chip in the world. Um, and if somebody's got a better one, I'd like to meet that person to shake their hand because AI six chip is just so good. Um, so I think we've got, we've got to, I think it's going real well, really well on the chip front.
嗯，好。再次感谢台积电、三星和迈克·布朗的支持。很好，我们快到时间了，但我们会尝试让丹也参与进来。所以，来自巴克莱银行的丹，请取消静音。好的，谢谢，非常感谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, yeah. And again, I'd like to thank our, thank TSMC and Samsung and Mike Brown for the support. Great. Uh, we are coming up in the hour, but we're going to try to squeeze, uh, Dan in. So, uh, from, from Barclays, uh, Dan, please unmute yourself. Uh, great. Thank you. Uh, appreciate it.
嗯，我想问一下关于资本支出的节奏和路径。埃隆，过去你曾说过，你会尽可能多地投资，但实际上效率似乎是决定因素。那么在目前的资本支出周期中，你的资本支出速度在多大程度上受到限制，仅仅是因为再多的投入会导致效率低下？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I'd like to ask about, uh, the pace and path of CapEx. Elon in the past, you've said that, you know, you'll spend as much as you can, but you know, really efficiency seems like it's the gating, uh, factor. So to what extent right now in this CapEx cycle is your pace of CapEx effectively capped simply because spending any more would be done in an inefficient manner.
在多大程度上，资本支出的速度确实是当前解决你们所面临的供应限制的主要决定因素？是的，这是个好问题。实际上，我已经要求团队尽量快速地进行资本支出，只要不造成太大的浪费，就应该尽可能快地投资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And to what extent is the pace of CapEx really the primary determinant right now in unlocking different supply constraints that you have? Yeah, it's a good question. Um, I've actually, you know, my, my, what I've asked the team to do is, is like really, we should be spending on CapEx as fast as we can spend as fast as we can without it, without it being too wasteful.
所以，我们并不是追求极高的资本使用效率，因为那样会让进度变慢。我们要在资本效率和时间之间寻找平衡。如果通过降低一点资本效率能够更快完成事情，那也是可以接受的，因为从长远看，这对公司的净现值（NPV）来说会是更有利的结果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we're not trying to aim for like some extremely high efficient, efficiency capital spend because that would slow things down. Um, so it's trying to, it's a balance between like how much cap, you know, sort of capital efficiency versus time. Um, so if, if we can be, it's okay to be a little less capital efficient if we get things done sooner, because that's actually going to be the, the higher, um, MPB outcome for the company.
嗯，总的来说，我对目前的情况挺满意的。我的意思是，我们正在许多不同领域同时进行大量的建设和生产增长。我觉得可能从来没有一家公司能在这样的规模上做到这一点。也许比例上可以类比亨利·福特当年生产T型车的时候，或者二战期间一些公司不得不扩大武器生产规模的情形。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so, um, overall, I'm pretty happy with how things going. I mean, we're doing an incredible amount of construction and production growth in so many different arenas simultaneously. Um, I don't think there's ever been a company that's on this at the scale, you know, but maybe proportionately back in when Henry Ford did the model T or something like that, but that, or World War II when, uh, you know, companies were making, it had to sort of scale up weapons, weapons production.
我认为这可能是自第二次世界大战以来美国最快的大规模工业扩展。我还想补充一点，就是如果你看看我们的资本支出，都是为了建立生产性资产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I think probably this is the fastest industrial scale up and since World War II in America. Yeah. And I will just add a little bit on that. Basically, if you look at it, you know, all our spend on CapEx is trying to do productive assets, right?
我们基本上是在扩大工厂的规模，不论是Optimus工厂、CyberCap工厂、今年早些时候开始运营的LFP工厂、半导体工厂，甚至是在那儿设立一个半导体制造厂，还有，我们正努力在美国进行大量的太阳能制造。事实上，这非常重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're basically scaling factories, whether it's Optimus, whether it's CyberCap, whether it's LFP factory, which went into operation earlier this year, or the semi factory, or even putting in a semiconductor fab in there, as well as, you know, we are trying to get, uh, a lot of solar manufacturing in the U.S. In fact, yeah, very important.
好的。这有点被低估了。请继续。是的，是的。基本上，你知道，美国的太阳能制造量，我们计划把它提高一个数量级。没有一件事情是容易的，因为为了建设一座工厂，你得从零开始。所以，让你了解一下，我想我们之前没分享过这一点：我们几乎成为我们大部分施工设施的总承包商，因为我们有那么多的建设项目。因此，回到Elon所说的，我们正在以非常快的速度扩展。而且，这确实意味着我们同时在做很多事情。因此，我们必须以人类在现实世界中能够做到的最快速度推进。我们的资本支出效率无疑是非常出色的。好的。Dan，你还有其他问题吗，我们可以总结一下。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. That's a little underrated by the way. Please go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. Basically, you know, the amount of solar manufacturing, which happens in the U.S., we're just going to multiply it with an order of magnitude. And none of these things are easy, right? Because what you have to do is in order to build a factory, you have to start from ground zero. So just so you know, again, I don't think we have shared this. We end up being the general contractor for almost all our construction facilities because we are doing that much construction. And so going back to what Elon was saying, we're going at a very rapid scale. And yes, uh, you know, this means that we have, we are doing a lot of things all at the same time. And that's why, you know, we just have to go as fast as we can humanly make things work in the real world. Yeah. Our CapEx efficiency, I think, is off-scale good. Great. Already. And then, Dan, did you have a follow-up that we can wrap up with?
好的。也许我可以简单问一个关于储能的问题，我认为这是一个很重要的话题。也许您可以谈谈，在可预见的未来，储能在多大程度上会受到供应限制？然后，目前的储能部署中，典型的情况是公用事业公司用来削峰，这种情况与您在一些材料中提到的有所不同，就是电池储能用于解决数据中心的电能质量问题，因为用电波动很大，而您在软件或电力电子方面有优势。那么现在数据中心与更广泛的公用事业削峰之间的需求曲线是怎样的？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Maybe just a quick question on energy storage, which, you know, I think is a key topic here. Maybe you can just address, you know, to what extent is energy storage going to be supply constrained for the foreseeable future? And then just to what extent are the deployments right now, the typical peak shaving that you'd see at utilities versus you've talked about in some of your materials, um, you know, for battery storage, addressing the quality of power issue for data centers, given the sharp fluctuations in power use, where you have an advantage given software or power electronics. So just what is that demand curve right now between a data center versus just broader peak shaving for utilities?
嗯，嗯，这不仅仅是削峰，还有电网平衡。不仅仅是短暂用电，而是通过风能和太阳能来平衡电力，电池在这方面非常棒。嗯，我的意思是，太阳能电池组合将成为未来世界上大部分能源的主要生产方式。当然，这也正是所有Starlink卫星通过太阳能电池板和电池供电的原理。所以，你可以把地球想象成一个巨大的卫星。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, well, it's still mostly, um, it's not just peak shaving, but it's also grid balancing. So it's not, it's not just like the facts are on briefly, but for balancing, for balancing power from, um, wind generation and solar generation, uh, batteries are, are awesome. Um, I mean, the solar battery combination will be how the vast majority of energy in the world is produced in the future. Um, that's really, of course, how all of the Starlink satellites are, are powered with, is with solar panels and batteries. So, and you can just think of Earth like a giant satellite.
嗯，太阳能提供的能量远远超过其他任何来源。我们认为能源限制已经成为人工智能的一个主要问题。因为，光是启动人工智能计算机的耗电需求就非常高，以至于即便是那些超大规模计算公司也在为如何启动他们的人工智能计算机和找到足够的电力而发愁。特别是在进行训练时，电力消耗会在非常短的时间内剧烈波动，比如在一次训练过程中，电力消耗可以在100毫秒内下降70%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, there's, there's far more power available from the sun than anything else by far. Um, and, uh, and we think power constraints are going to be, um, they already are a major issue for, for AI, you know, just turning on the, the AI computers, the AI compute demand is so high that, um, people having, even the, you know, the hyperscalers are having trouble turning on their, their, um, their AI compute, um, and finding the power and then, um, smoothing the power with, uh, you know, especially for the training runs where the power cycles dramatically, um, in a, in a very short period of time, you can have during a training run, the, the power consumption can drop by, you know, 70% for a hundred milliseconds.
嗯，为了能够平稳处理这些巨大的电力变化，尤其是在训练过程中，你确实需要快速响应的先进电力电子技术。这就是为什么SpaceX购买了这么多大型电池组用于数据中心。主要是为了平缓训练过程中的电力波动，但这些电池组也有助于从电网获取更多电力。因为如果你告诉电力公司，在一年中最艰难的时段他们不需要供电，因为电池可以应对，这样就能更容易地让他们为你供电。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and you really need fast acting, advanced power electronics to be able to, um, smooth out these, these, um, massive, uh, with the massive, massive changes in power, um, especially during, during their training runs. So, um, that's why SpaceX has bought so many mega packs, uh, for the data centers. It's actually, um, mostly for, for smoothing out the power for the training runs, um, but it will also be useful for, um, being able to, to have more power from the, um, the grid by, uh, you know, if you, if you tell utilities that they can, um, um, you know, uh, cut that, that, that they won't, they will not need to supply power during the, you know, the worst hours of the worst days of the year because the batteries can handle it, then that makes it much easier for that, for them to, um, to, to give you power.
嗯，实际上，我的意思是，在美国扩大总能源生产的最佳方式可能就是使用电池。因为美国的发电能力大约是1.2到1.3太瓦，而平均用电量只有半太瓦。因此，发电能力是平均用电量的2.5倍。这意味着仅靠电池，美国的能量产出就可以增加一倍。所以，我们认为未来对MegaPack的需求会非常非常高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, in fact, I mean, the, the probably the best way to scale total energy production in the United States is simply using batteries because there's, I think around 1.2 or 1.3 terawatts of power production in the U S but the average power usage is only half a terawatt. So you've got two and a half times as much power generation as the average usage. Um, that means you could potentially double the energy after the United States just with batteries. So, so really we see demand for uh, Meg pack being very, very high in the future.
好的。那么，今天的问答环节时间就到这里了，感谢大家提出的问题，我们期待下个季度再与大家交流。非常感谢，谢谢大家。好，大家好。接下来我们会花些时间回顾一下会议中的一些笔记。不巧的是，我一会儿有其他安排，所以只能留出大约十分钟的时间。不过，我认为这次会议没有什么特别惊人的新内容。对我来说，最有意思的部分可能是Ashok对RoboTaxi现状的评论，以及为何扩展速度较慢的一些原因。我不知道是否应该用“慢速扩展”来形容，因为如果与Waymo的扩展对比的话，可以说Waymo的扩展速度显然更早启动，然而他们的扩展速度要慢得多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Alrighty. Uh, that is all the time we have for today for Q and a, uh, we appreciate everyone's questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much. Thanks everyone. All right. Hey everybody. Well, uh, we'll spend some time here going through some notes from the call. I do unfortunately have something that I have conflict with a little bit later. So I've probably only got about 10 minutes here. Um, but I don't think anything, you know, crazy new on the call. I think probably the most interesting part to me was Ashok's comments on just, uh, the state of RoboTaxi and some of the reasons for, I don't know if slow expansion is the right way to frame it because I think if you put this in context of how, you know, Waymo expanded and the amount of time that it took Waymo to expand, like obviously they started earlier and their expansion rate certainly was much lower, uh, much slower.
重要的背景信息在那里，但是我认为有些问题也是合理的，比如“扩展是从哪里来的？”或者“这个的时间线是什么？”以及“增加更多车辆的时间线是什么？”对此，我觉得他们给出了很好的回答。关于这一点，我在股东信和今天稍早发布的节目中分享了一些我的预期。对于那些没有机会看到的人，链接在描述中。但总体上，这与我预期的大致一致。他们在监督下部署RoboTaxi，然后再在非监督下部署，正如预期的那样，从中可以获得经验教训。然后需要时间来实施这些学习成果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So important context there, but I think the questions are also fair of like, hey, you know, where's, where's the expansion coming from? Or what's the timeline on that? What's the timeline for adding more cars? Things like that. I thought they gave good answers on that. I went through some of my expectations around that on the call that's linked in the, or after the shareholder letter, the earlier episode today. Um, for those that didn't have a chance to see that, the link is in the description, but largely what I expected, right? Like there, as they deploy RoboTaxi first in a supervised capacity and then in an unsupervised capacity there, as would be expected, are learnings from that. It takes time to then go and implement those learnings.
我认为，从特斯拉所说的一切来看，V15版本是他们真正开始应用无监督测试中获得经验的版本。V14版本，我认为完全是基于之前收集的用户监督数据构建的。而现在，我们已经有了V15版本和首个从监督到无监督的RoboTaxi服务，中间有一点混合状态，这使特斯拉可以将那些经验和数据应用到下一步的迭代中。我认为我们现在在等待这个新的迭代，就像等待CyberCab能够大规模投入使用一样。Ashok在电话会议中提到，这些规划和实施计划都很好地协调起来了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think V15 is from everything that Tesla has said, the version that has actually allowed them to implement learnings from the unsupervised testing that has existed, right? V14, I think was entirely built off of like supervised customer data that had been collected. And then now that we've had V15, now that we've had a RoboTaxi service first supervised, now unsupervised, a little bit of mix still, that gives Tesla the chance to start feeding some of those learnings, feeding some of that data into the next iteration. And I think right now we're waiting for that next iteration. We're waiting for CyberCab to be, CyberCab to be able to ramp. They said, Ashok said on the call that the paths and the ramp plans for both of those are pretty well aligned.
我认为他们扩展到新城市是合理的，这样可以符合各种监管要求，让城市更放心。他们可能会说，嘿，我们允许这种发展，到目前为止一切都很好，我们可以继续这样做。其他城市也能看到这点并开始说，嘿，这已经在其它七个城市实现了，为什么我不能参与其中呢？这样让每个人都更加轻松。接受度越大，接下来的城市或地区接受起来就越容易。所以即使你还没有打算大规模扩展业务，因为你在等待V15版本，但你仍然希望继续取得进展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think it makes sense for them to expand to new cities, to be able to like check all those regulatory boxes, start making cities feel comfortable. They're like, hey, we let this happen. And so far, it's been great. And we can continue to let this happen. And other cities can look at that and start to say, hey, this is in seven other cities. Like, why can't I be a part of that? It just makes things easier for everyone. Like the larger the acceptance is, the more easy it is for that next incremental city or jurisdiction to accept. So if you're not trying to like massively grow your miles yet, because you're waiting for the V15 version, but you still want to continue to make progress.
我觉得，做到这一点的方法是继续向新的地区扩展。当你获得这些地区的监管批准后，就可以在不同的环境中开始获取新的数据，而不是简单地将5,000辆车投放到奥斯汀。虽然这样做可能会有新的发现，但我认为主要的限制因素更可能与法规有关，包括获得城市的批准，以及确保他们在这些地区进行过应急人员培训等事情。我认为这些因素可能更具限制性，而不仅仅是考虑在同一个地方把现有的工作扩大十倍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The way to do that, I think, is to continue to expand into new jurisdictions. As you get those regulatory approvals, start getting new data in diverse environments, um, rather than just being like, all right, we're going to throw 5,000 vehicles into Austin, you know, there are going to be probably new things that they would learn from doing that. But I think that the gating factor is probably more related to the, you know, regulations and getting those cities approvals and making sure that like they've done first responder training in those areas, like the things that they've talked about. I think those are probably more gating than just being like, hey, can we do the thing that we just did times 10 in the same area?
这可能相当简单，但也可能不是他们现在迫切想做的事情。比如说，如果你已经有了V15，并且对此更加有信心，为什么不等到它准备好呢？同时，你可以在其他市场和其他不完全重复你已经做过的事情上取得进展。因为存在监管差异、环境差异以及他们讨论过的其他因素。所以，我认为这个解释完全符合我今天早些时候的预期和思路。我认为这一部分非常重要，他们表达得很好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's probably pretty easy, but also probably not something that they want to necessarily do until like, if you've got 15 V15 and you're way more confident in that, why not just wait a little bit until that's ready? At the same time, you can progress in the other markets and other things that aren't just replicating the thing that you already did exactly. Um, cause there are the regulatory differences, the environment differences, the things that they've talked about. So I think that expect explanation pretty much exactly matches what I would have expected earlier today and kind of walked through. So I think that part was really important. I think that they articulated it well.
嗯，这里还有一些其他有趣的内容，他们显然提到了一些关于资本支出（CapEx）的更多信息。看看还有关于Optimus的更多信息。我觉得Optimus很有意思，因为我认为没有人对Optimus有短期的期望。我没有在分析师的模型中看到有人认为Optimus会在第四季度创造100亿美元的收入，这种期望是不存在的。所以，我觉得大家都清楚，这将是一个需要很长时间才能逐步发展起来的项目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, some of the other interesting things in here that, you know, they talk about obviously a little bit more information on, on, on the CapEx. Um, let's see a little bit more information on Optimus. I think Optimus is interesting because I don't think anyone really has like short term expectations for Optimus. Like I don't see that in analyst models as like Optimus is going to generate $10 billion of revenue in Q4, you know, like that's not the expectation. So I think everyone is aware that this is going to be something that takes a long time to ramp.
所以我觉得我们几乎迫不及待地想看看，哦，V3版本真的要来了。大家都期待它，但我认为对于推广的预期仍然相对较小。我觉得目前大家对股票的很多期待都集中在自动驾驶出租车上，嗯，还有可能是网络出租车的生产之类的。这些是两个主要因素。很高兴听到关于完全自动驾驶（FSD）选装率的消息。他们基本上是说，现在人们购买的是完全自动驾驶功能，而不是车本身。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think we're almost anxious to just see like, all right, V3, let's, we, I think everybody wants to see it in terms of expectations for ramp. I still think those are pretty small. Like I think a lot of the expectations around the stock relates to just RoboTaxi right now. Um, and probably cyber cab production and things like that. Like those are, you know, the two major factors. It was really nice to hear about the FSD take rate too. They said basically like people are buying FSD now, not the car, right?
汽车只是一个用于全自动驾驶（FSD）的载体，如果你再想深一层，这就是一种自动化服务，对吧？你不需要自己买整辆车，你只是买你真正需要的东西。而你真正需要的是能把你从一个地方带到另一个地方的东西，不是吗？如果你能得到你想要的东西，这就像是目标和解决方案的问题。不要制定规定要求每个人都必须买车，因为那样实际上是在破坏市场，因为可能会有更好的解决方案。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the car is just a delivery vehicle for FSD, which if you think one step further, that's what an autonomous service is, right? Instead of going to having to buy the entire car yourself, you're just buying what you actually want. And what you actually want is something to move you from place to place, right? And if you can get what you want, it's kind of like the goal versus solution thing that they said, like, don't make a regulation saying everyone has to buy a car because then you're, you're just like essentially breaking the market because there could be a better solution.
也许更好的解决方案不是买车，而是购买自动驾驶的交通服务，你知道吗？这些事情是相关的。不过，看到北美地区的接受率达到55%真的很不错。我觉得这是这份财报中最好的部分，听到这样的接受率让我感到非常惊讶。这意味着人们对全自动驾驶（FSD）的理解更加广泛。人们从FSD中看到了更多的价值，这很合理，因为它发展得越来越好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And maybe that better solution is not buying a car, but buying an autonomous transportation service, you know? So those things are related. Um, but really nice to see just North American take rate 55%. I think that's amazing. Um, that's, it's a really, probably the best part of this earnings report, I think is hearing, hearing that take rate. It means that people are understanding FSD in a more broad way. People are seeing more value from FSD, which makes sense because it's getting so good.
嗯，我觉得这种趋势会继续下去。我觉得特斯拉好像也开始放松了一些监控措施。如果这种趋势继续下去，你知道的，SAE有第三级、第四级、第五级自动驾驶等级，等等，我一直不太喜欢这些分类方式。但是，如果你处于某种介于第一级、第二级、或第三级之间的状态，这好像差不多就是特斯拉现在的运作方式。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and I think that that trend is going to continue. I think Tesla's like started to relax some of the monitoring too. And if that trend continues where, you know, there's the SAE levels three, four, five, whatever, I've never been fond of how those have been categorized. But if you're somewhere in between, like whatever level two, level three, level four in some little way, which is kind of how it seems like Tesla's operating right now.
意思是，如果人们意识到在每次驾驶的每一刻不一定都要全神贯注，而且特斯拉对此也感到满意，监管机构也同意，那么即使目前还不能完全实现无人监督驾驶，这也是非常有价值的。因此，我认为人们开始认识到这种能力的存在，并看到了其中的价值，这也推动了需求的增加，就像他们所说的那样。我对此感到兴奋。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Point being, if people realize that they don't necessarily have to pay attention every single moment of every single drive, um, and Tesla's comfortable with that and regulators are comfortable with that, it's, that's very valuable, even if it's not fully unsupervised right away. So I think people are starting to recognize that that's a capability that is here and, uh, are seeing the value in that and it's, it's driving demand, like they said. So I'm excited about that.
在边际方面，我有点好奇他们在电话会议中是否会讨论这一点。基本上，Viabob 上季度通过了一次性收益来提升了利润率，但本季度有一些因素影响了利润率。不过我记得他说如果排除这些因素的话，利润率基本上是持平的。但我之前做过计算，上季度的利润率是17.5%，而本季度是16.3%。我不一定会称这为持平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, on the margins, one of the, one of the things I was curious if they would address in the call, basically Viabob went through the, you know, one-time benefits to the margin last quarter, some of the things that hurt this quarter. Uh, but I think he said excluding some of those things, it would basically be flat. When I had done the math earlier, it was like 17 and a half percent versus whatever 16.3% this quarter. So I wouldn't necessarily call that flat.
嗯，不过可能还有一些影响是我没有考虑到的，或者从评论中没有明确理解的。所以也许我们会在10号队列中得到更多的信息。但是，就报告中一些不太受欢迎的内容而言，我认为其中之一就是压缩和自动利润率问题。不过我们也谈到过，如果你之前没注意到的话，汽车成本已经维持在35,000美元大约有四五年了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but there may be some other impact that I wasn't considering or didn't explicitly understand from the comments there. So maybe we'll get more information on that in the 10 queue, but in terms of like some things in the report that were like not as well received, I think that was one of the ones would be just the compression and the auto margin. But we also talked to, if you didn't catch it earlier, just like automotive cogs has been $35,000 for four or five years now.
好的。所以没有人应该期望这会突然达到30,000。实现这个目标的方法是通过"网络出租"。但我们还没有到那个阶段。显然，这对于他们现在出售车辆的平均商品成本来说并不是一个关键因素。所以这是下一代技术。那才是你会看到商品成本大幅下降的唯一时候。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. So no one should be expecting that to just all of a sudden be 30,000. The way to make that happen is cyber cab. And we're not there yet. Like obviously that's a non-factor in terms of the average cost of goods sold on their vehicles that they're selling right now. So that's the next generation. That's the only time you'd ever expect a big leap down in cost of goods sold.
显然，这将会是一个完全不同的商业模式，因为它是完全自动化的。关于现在汽车的生产成本，这确实很重要，因为它驱动着业务，而业务又决定了他们能做出的资本支出投资。这些都是很重要的，但它并不像五年前那样重要，当时这些还是整个业务的核心，并且还在不断发展壮大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And obviously that's something that is going to be an entirely different business model because it's fully autonomous. So, um, in terms of like automotive cogs today, it's important, drives the business, the business drives the capital expenditure investments that they can make. All these things are important, but it's not as important as it would have been five years ago when that was kind of a business that was, you know, the entire business and was, was growing and things like that.
现在我们已经达到了一个阶段，我不知道"平台期"这个词是否合适，因为我确实认为它还会增长。但是，像Model Y这样的车型，它的增长是有限的，而下一个增长阶段一直是机器人出租车、自动驾驶等。我们仍在等待这一阶段的到来。尽管已经过了几年，但这几年里取得了很大进展，现在我们比几年前离实现这些目标更近了。这也使得汽车成本结构和全自动驾驶的接受率、无人监督的机器人出租车在新城市的扩张的相对重要性，与五年前相比有很大不同。尤其是无人监督的机器人出租车的扩展，毕竟这在五年前还不存在。希望这解释清楚。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now we've reached a, I don't know if plateau is the right word because I do think it'll grow, but like you can only grow the model Y to be so many vehicles and always the next phase of growth has been robot taxi, autonomous driving, things like that. And we're still waiting for that phase, um, to happen. But since it's been years and a lot of progress has been made over those years, we're a lot closer to that now than we would have been, you know, a few years ago, which makes the relative weight of importance of like automotive cogs versus like FSD take rate and unsupervised robo taxi expansion into new cities. Like the relative weight of those is very different now than it was five years ago. Um, especially expansion of unsupervised robo taxis, which obviously didn't exist. So hopefully that makes sense.
嗯，我认为市场对成本的关注比我在这个时候更加看重。因此，市场的反应对我来说并不意外。在财报电话会议上也是一样，我认为当特斯拉预测今年的资本支出仍然会在250亿美元以上时，市场有所波动。他们在上一季度就做过这样的预测，并且预计在未来两到三年内还会继续增加。这表示这不仅仅是一次性增加资本支出，而是他们认为这将至少持续较长时间，不只是六个月左右。这显然不会让关注关税问题的人大吃一惊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I think the market would put more weight on the, on the cogs than, than I would at this point though. So I'm not, not terribly surprised by the market reaction and same thing with earnings call. I think you saw a little bit of a dip if you were watching along there when Tesla guided for capex to still be at the 25 billion plus this year, which they guided last quarter. And then also that they expected that to continue to basically increase in the next two to three years, uh, signaling that this isn't just a one-time like raise in capex. So they view this as something that is going to continue at least for a longer period than, you know, six months here, which obviously tariff habits shouldn't be terribly surprising.
嗯，希望这也能说得通。嗯，好吧，我现在得走了。我知道可能还有几点我没提到，所以我会快速浏览一下，看看有没有其他需要注意的。我的界面在直播时有点怪，如果我漏掉了任何超级留言，我很抱歉，我尽量不这样，可有时候确实很难看清。如果真的漏掉了，我会在有时间时在评论区回应。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so hopefully that makes sense too. Um, all right, so I do have to run here. I'm sure there's a couple of points that I'm missing. So I'm just going to try to scroll through and see if I notice anything else here. And then I don't this, the UI on my, my end is a little bit weird on the stream. I don't know if I, I apologize if I missed any super chats. I'd try not to do that, but it's kind of hard to tell sometimes. If I did, I'll try to get to those in the comment section when I have a moment.
嗯，让我想想。我觉得可能还有一件事情我想提一下。哦，这可能更属于SpaceX的领域，但我觉得非常有趣的是，现在Starlink（星链）被整合进了网络出租车。我好像听到他说几乎所有其他特斯拉车型都将配备Starlink，但我不想夸大其词，因为这可能只是未来的其他特斯拉车型，比如未来的RoboVan（机器人货车）会配备Starlink。这真的很有趣，如果你们中有人关注我在X平台上关于SpaceX所说的一切，SpaceX让我感兴趣的部分之一就是，其中一艘星舰已经投入运营。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, let's see. I feel like there was maybe one other thing that I wanted to make note of. Oh, so this is probably more a SpaceX thing, but I think it's incredibly interesting when you have Starlink now being integrated into cyber cab. And I think I heard him say basically all other Tesla vehicles, but I don't want to be overstating that because it may have just been like other Tesla vehicles in the future, which obviously like RoboVan would have cyber or would have Starlink. But that's incredibly interesting is that if you've got, I think those of you that have followed anything that I've said on, on X about SpaceX, like the, one of the most interesting parts of SpaceX to me is that one starship is up and running.
SpaceX 现在可以以目前成本的约5%提升 Starlink 的带宽。也就是说，以现在将一太比特（terabit）的容量送入太空的成本，现在可以送入20太比特。如果能够做到这一点，就能为类似的服务提供更大的容量。比如，如果你把这些容量传输到城市中的不同网络节点，就相当于获得了许多可以用来扩展信号覆盖的信号塔。我可以继续详细讲下去，但今天就不深入了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
SpaceX can basically add bandwidth to Starlink at about 5% of the cost that it is for them to do that today. So meaning for the same cost to put one terabit of capacity in space right now, you can put 20. Um, and then if you can do that, then you've got a lot more capacity to serve things like this, which if you're beaming down all this capacity to all these different cyber cabs that exist in cities, it gives you like a ton of cell towers that you can, that you can use to, you know, mesh out that signal. If that makes sense. I don't know. I could talk about that a lot longer. I won't go and I guess into that today.
你知道, 就像我说的，我想我们可能会对SpaceX的财报电话会议做同样的事情。所以也许我们会把它留到那时候。我只是觉得那里的潜力非常有趣，而且严重地被低估了。我对此感到很兴奋。好吧，只是确保这里没有其他事情。是的，目前55%是FSD（完全自动驾驶）一次性购买，45%是订阅。显然，这个比例会发生变化。看看特斯拉是否会继续谈论这个问题会很有趣，因为这个比例会随着时间而变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, like I said, I think we'll probably do the same thing for SpaceX earnings calls. So maybe we'll save it for that. But I just think the potential there is, is very interesting and underappreciated, um, in a severe way. So excited about that, but, um, all right. Uh, just making sure there's nothing else here. Yeah. So 55% FSD purchases, 45% subscriptions. Like obviously that'll shift. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla continues to talk about that, but that'll shift over time.
能源利润率。我们之前讨论过这个话题。所以这里的评论与我们已经讨论过的相同。之前也讨论过这个问题。确保一些债务融资，这将有助于资本支出。而38万英里的数据，这是很有趣的。显然，我认为特斯拉财报股东信上的图表是关于付费无人驾驶出租车行程的，我认为这可能包括有人监督行驶的里程。因此，这应该是不受监督的那部分。我们可以就此进行一些数学计算。尽管这个比例较低，但显然不受监督的行驶开始得更晚，零事故记录仍然是一个很好的成就。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Energy margins. We talked about that before. So that's same commentary there that we had already discussed. Discussed that earlier. Securing some debt facilities. So that'll help with the capex. And then the 380K miles, that's interesting. Obviously I think the graph on Tesla's earnings shareholder letter is like, uh, paid robo taxi rides, which I think would include supervised miles. So this would be the portion that's unsupervised. We can do some math on that. That's a low percent, but obviously the unsupervised that started much later, but to have zero incidences is great.
这段文字翻译成中文可以表达为：
这并不是说不存在特斯拉无责的一些碰撞事故。例如，如果有人追尾了赛博卡车，而前面还有一辆车的话，你其实无能为力。所以会发生这样的事。最终，这样的事情可能导致人员受伤，甚至可能导致死亡。我明白特斯拉的意思，他们想要避免这种事情。我认为，这种情况是不可避免的，至少在允许人类开车的情况下，而这将持续很长时间。实际上，我支持人类驾驶。但是，只要人类仍是道路上主要的驾驶者，就不可避免会因为不可控的因素而发生伤亡事故。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like that doesn't mean that there wasn't like a collision that was, Tesla was not at fault. Like if someone just rear ends the cyber cab and there's a car in front, like you literally can't do anything. Right. So there's going to be stuff like that. Eventually something like that is going to lead to an injury is going to lead to a fatality. I get what Tesla is saying. Like we want to avoid that. I think that that is unavoidable, at least while humans are allowed to drive, which is going to be good for a long, long time. Um, and I'm actually in favor of, but as long as humans are like the predominant drivers on the road, there's, it's inevitable that there will be injuries. There will be fatalities just because of other people that are unavoidable.
所以，我并不是说他们的说法没有道理，一方面，他们可能在找借口，说是为了安全和谨慎，不希望发生任何意外，但实际上他们可能是在等待V15的发布。我并不是说他们想误导人，因为我觉得这两者都有道理，并且很可能巧妙地结合在一起。他们的谨慎态度是正确的策略，我们之前也讨论过。我认为，实现零事故、零伤亡的目标可能并不现实。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I don't want, I get what they're saying on one hand, maybe it's like an excuse of like, Oh, we're just being like super safe and cautious and we don't want any incidents while really they're just waiting for V15. Not to say it's like trying to be misleading or anything. Cause I think both things are true. Um, but maybe they work together well, um, conveniently. I think their rights approach is very, very cautiously. We've talked about that before. It's the right strategy. I don't think that the goal of having zero incidents, zero fatalities is achievable, I guess is maybe the way to put it.
所以，我觉得他们的目标可能是没有任何由特斯拉导致的问题。这是一个非常不同的目标，可能这是他们的定位方式，而我对此更加认同。因此，我们将采用这个解释。这是一个公平的解释，但显然媒体报道不会这样解读。不幸的是，他们往往会尽可能地负面化，以吸引点击和增加收入，但事实就是这样。希望人们能够理解。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I would maybe, I think the goal that they have is like none, none caused by Tesla. Right. And that's a very, that's, that's a different goal. And that's probably how they're, how they're framing it. And that's, that's, I'm much more aligned with that. So we'll use that interpretation. Um, that's the fair interpretation. It's not the interpretation that would be used by media coverage. Obviously, they'll painted as negatively as possible to drive clicks and revenue, unfortunately, but it is what it is. Hopefully people understand.
嗯，很高兴看到V15现在已经在自动驾驶出租车上运行了。听起来它有点像V4 V15的简化版或者测试版，我猜V15可能像是预发布版，因为还没有包含他们提到的所有V15的重要改进。不过，部分功能已经在实施中，这还是让人感到振奋的。好的，那么今天我们就到这里，非常感谢各位的参与。我可能会计划在8月4日为SpaceX的财报做类似的活动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, cool to see that V15 is running in robo taxi vehicles right now. It sounds like it's like V4 V15, like light or beta beta, um, V15, like pre alpha, I guess, cause it's not even all of the major improvements that they mentioned for V15. Um, but the fact that some of that is already being implemented, um, is exciting. All right. So with that, I think we will wrap it up for today again, super appreciate you guys joining again. I'll probably plan to do something similar for the spacex earnings on August 4th.
嗯，我们看看事情会怎么发展吧。目前这就是我的计划。所以，现在可能要更改频道名称了，确实有点晚了。我只是需要找出怎么做。所以我们可能会把它更新为罗布·毛雷尔。不过，很高兴再次见到大家。抱歉上个季度没能见面，这并不是我的本意，只是遇到了无法避免的冲突。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, we'll see how that comes together. Uh, but that's sort of my current plan. So, uh, probably we'll reach it, uh, change the name of the channel now at this point. It's overdue. I just need to figure out how to do that. So we'll probably just update that, uh, to Rob Maurer, but awesome to see you guys again. Sorry, I missed last quarter, not the intent, just had an unavoidable conflict.
嗯，我希望能继续做这些活动，希望下次能在SpaceX上进行，如果不行的话，我们下个季度再说，前提是没有不可避免的冲突。感谢大家，今天的交流很愉快，期待下次再见。谢谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but hoping to continue to do these and we'll see, uh, hopefully on the spacex ones, but if not, uh, next quarter, um, assuming no unavoidable conflicts there, but appreciate you guys. It's been fun today chatting and looking forward to next time around. Thank you.